The NFL’s first batch of byes have shrunk this week’s schedule a bit, but there are still 14 games on the slate from Thursday through Monday.
Favourites are only 27-33-4 against the spread so far, but our staff is calling for a bit of a bounce back in that regard this week. Eight of our 14 ATS predictions side with the favourite.
Check out our NFL Week 5 ATS picks for predictions and analysis on every game.
NFL Week 5 ATS picks
NorthStar Bets’ Avery Perri, Jordan Horrobin, Spencer Closs and Chris Toman offer up their NFL Week 5 ATS picks for all 14 games.
NFL odds as of 11:00 a.m. ET on Thursday, Oct. 3, 2024.
Click odds from any game to add selections to your betslip.
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Thursday Night Football pick
Buccaneers vs. Falcons (Thursday, Oct. 3: 8:20 p.m.)
NorthStar Bets line: Atlanta -1.5
Closs says: These sides are evenly matched on paper but one thing stands out in favour of the Bucs. Tampa Bay converts 42.6% of third downs while Atlanta struggles in that situation, converting at just a 26.3% clip. Baker Mayfield has been the better quarterback through four weeks and I expect him to outshine Kirk Cousins in prime time.
Pick: Buccaneers +1.5
NFL Week 5 ATS picks: The early Sunday slate
Jets vs. Vikings (Sunday, Oct. 6: 9:30 a.m.)
NorthStar Bets line: Minnesota -2.5
Perri says: New York’s offence was jet-lagged before it even got to London and now it has to deal with a Vikings defence leading the league in EPA per play. Aaron Rodgers and Co. put up just nine points last week while Sam Darnold is slinging it all over the yard. Give me the Vikes.
Pick: Vikings -2.5
Browns vs. Commanders (Sunday, Oct. 6: 1:00 p.m.)
NorthStar Bets line: Washington -3.5
Perri says: How many times this year will I step on the rake with Cleveland? I don’t know but, I like the Browns again as a field-goal-plus dog in Washington. Deshaun Watson looked better against Las Vegas and Jayden Daniels is probably due to slow down soon. The Browns’ defence is legit and should give the rookie trouble.
Pick: Browns +3.5
Bengals vs. Ravens (Sunday, Oct. 6: 1:00 p.m.)
NorthStar Bets line: Baltimore -2.5
Horrobin says: Is this supposed to be a come-down spot for Baltimore after its dominant win last week in Buffalo? I’m not buying that. The Ravens covered this number in both matchups against the Bengals last year. Derrick Henry (NFL-high 120 rush yards/game) looks unstoppable and should haunt the dreams of Cincy defenders.
Pick: Ravens -2.5
Bills vs. Texans (Sunday, Oct. 6: 1:00 p.m.)
NorthStar Bets line: Buffalo -1
Toman says: This is a tough bounce-back spot for the Bills on the road after getting pumped in Week 4, but I think they’re the better team. Both teams are 3-1, though Houston barely got by in each of its victories (winning by an average of four points) and got trounced by the Vikings. Even after a 10-point showing last week, Josh Allen’s Bills are still the No. 2 scoring offence in the NFL.
Pick: Bills -1
Colts vs. Jaguars (Sunday, Oct. 6: 1:00 p.m.)
NorthStar Bets line: Indianapolis +3
Perri says: Whether it’s Anthony Richardson or Joe Flacco at QB, I like the Colts to cover in this divisional game. The Jaguars are the NFL’s only winless team and Trevor Lawerence has the second-lowest completion rate among all starting quarterbacks. Doug Pederson is coaching for his job and I say he loses it on Sunday.
Pick: Colts +3
Panthers vs. Bears (Sunday, Oct. 6: 1:00 p.m.)
NorthStar Bets line: Chicago -4
Horrobin says: Andy Dalton versus Caleb Williams is a lopsided quarterback matchup… but maybe not in the way you’d think. Chicago has six total TDs this season, while Dalton has thrown for five in two starts. Carolina has scored in 11 of 20 drives with Dalton (excusing two kneel-down drives), and its offensive floor is high enough for me to take the visitors with points.
Pick: Panthers +4
Dolphins vs. Patriots (Sunday, Oct. 6: 1:00 p.m.)
NorthStar Bets line: New England -1
Closs says: This is an ugly one but I believe the Patriots are the more competent team. New England has the edge on defence and with Tua Tagovailoa still out, the Pats have the better offence, too. Jacoby Brissett is no superstar but he’s good enough to lead his team to a win at home.
Pick: Patriots -1
NFL 4 p.m. slate
Cardinals vs. 49ers (Sunday, Oct. 6: 4:05 p.m.)
NorthStar Bets line: San Francisco -7.5
Toman says: The Cardinals looked solid offensively to start and have been horrible defensively the entire season. At 1-3, this is already a massive game in a tough NFC West. The 49ers are still down Christian McCaffrey, which cools their outlook no matter how well Jordan Mason is playing. San Francisco has won both home games by double digits but this is a lot of points against a desperate divisional opponent.
Pick: Cardinals +7.5
Raiders vs. Broncos (Sunday, Oct. 6: 4:05 p.m.)
NorthStar Bets line: Denver -3
Horrobin says: Neither a 10-point deficit nor the absence of Davante Adams prevented the Raiders from winning as underdogs last week. The Broncos’ upset win against the Jets was even more impressive, but Denver only scored 10 points in that game. In what should be a low-scoring matchup, I’ll take some points with a Las Vegas team trying to win its ninth straight against Denver.
Pick: Raiders +3
Make your NFL Week 5 predictions
Packers vs. Rams (Sunday, Oct. 6: 4:25 p.m.)
NorthStar Bets line: Green Bay -3
Closs says: The Rams are missing Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp and can’t stop anything on defence. L.A. has conceded the second-most points per game (28.8) through four weeks. Jordan Love led Green Bay to 22 fourth-quarter points last week and I have a hard time seeing Matthew Stafford keeping pace.
Pick: Packers -3
Giants vs. Seahawks (Sunday, Oct. 6: 4:25 p.m.)
NorthStar Bets line: Seattle -6.5
Perri says: Seattle’s defence was in tough against the Lions but its offence kept pace until the very end. That’s encouraging. New York’s running game is awful, so Seattle’s secondary should be able to sell out and stop Malik Nabers. On offence, I expect Geno Smith to keep cooking.
Pick: Seahawks -6.5
Sunday and Monday night ATS picks
Cowboys vs. Steelers (Sunday, Oct. 6: 8:20 p.m.)
NorthStar Bets line: Pittsburgh -2.5
Horrobin says: Dallas already has an outright win as a 2.5-point dog against an AFC North team this year (Cleveland). Injuries to Demarcus Lawrence and Micah Parsons are concerning, but the Steelers’ offence has struggled to get into the end zone. And the Cowboys, who haven’t played since last Thursday, are 7-2-0 ATS with a rest advantage since 2022.
Pick: Cowboys +2.5
Saints vs. Chiefs (Monday, Oct. 7: 8:15 p.m.)
NorthStar Bets line: Kansas City -5.5
Toman says: Kansas City is 4-0 but hasn’t won any of its last seven games (playoffs included) by more than seven points. The reigning champs have not been blowing teams out despite their success. New Orleans is banged up defensively but has been strong on that side of the ball. Coming off back-to-back one-score losses, the Saints have covered this number in all four of their games.
Pick: Saints +5.5
Staff Week 4 + season-long records: Closs: 4-11-1 (32-28-4) | Toman: 9-6-1 (31-29-4) | Perri: 5-10-1 (25-35-4) | Horrobin: 3-12-1 (25-35-4) | Psihogios: 8-7-1 (24-36-4)
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