Our staff’s Week 4 best bets feature a pair of ATS predictions, one moneyline pick and two prop bets.
The Week 4 narrative: The Los Angeles Rams blew a 19-point lead last week and have the chance to bounce back at home. They’re one of two teams featured in this week’s best bets. On the prop market, look to fade Saquon Barkley against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
Check out our NFL Week 4 staff best bets for our favourite picks this weekend, featuring a prediction on quarterback Caleb Williams.
NFL Week 4 best bets
These NFL Week 4 best bets were provided by NorthStar Bets writers Avery Perri and Spencer Closs.
ATS picks
Rams -3.5 (-107): I can’t discredit the Colts much. They are 3-0 with a +47 point differential, but one knock against them is the quality of their opponents.
- In Week 1, they beat the Dolphins by 25 points. In Week 3, they bashed the Titans by 21.
- Indianapolis struggled against the Broncos, scratching out a 29-28 victory thanks to a second chance on a buzzer-beating field goal.
It’s safe to say Denver has been the Colts’ toughest competitor, and I’d argue that the Broncos are a tier below the Rams.
L.A. should probably be 3-0, too, but it blew a big lead to the defending champion Eagles last week.
Puka Nacua is shaping into an elite receiver, and the Rams thrive with their star in the lineup. They are 8-2 in their past 10 regular-season games with Nacua active, and they were Philly’s only real test in the 2024 playoffs.
I can’t help but feel the Colts are a bit overrated, so I’ll buy in on the Rams at home.
Best moneyline bet
Bears ML (-103): I know they’re on the road, but the Bears look like the better team. The Raiders have scored more than 20 points just once, and it came in last week’s 41-24 loss to the Commanders without Jayden Daniels.
For Chicago, Caleb Williams is cooking as a sophomore:
- 7 TD passes
- 1 INT
- 107.6 passer rating
Last week, he threw for four TDs with no turnovers. Chicago did play an awful Dallas defence, but it’s certainly something to build on.
Geno Smith has been decent, but his 4:4 TD-to-INT ratio is not very good. Plus, two of his TD passes came in garbage time last week when Las Vegas was already out of it.
The Raiders should struggle to keep pace with the Bears.
NFL Week 4 best bets: Player props
Barkley under 83.5 rushing yards (-110): Fading the reigning Offensive Player of the Year is risky business, but this is the time to do it.
- The Buccaneers have held 11 straight opponents under 100 rushing yards.
- In that span, the Bucs have limited their opponents to a measly 3.3 yards per carry.
- Tampa’s defence ranks first in EPA per rush and second in rush success rate, per RBSDM.com.
Vita Vea is the ultimate run stopper, and Barkley has struggled to get things going on the ground this year anyway.
He is averaging 64.6 rushing yards per game at 3.3 YPC and is 1-2 against this line.
Williams over 235.5 passing yards (-114): Williams is coming off a career performance, completing 19-of-28 passes for 298 yards and four touchdowns in a blowout win over the Cowboys.
There’s no excuse for Williams to take a step back against the Raiders on Sunday.
Vegas’ defence ranks 27th in EPA per pass and has let two of three opposing QBs clear this total. The outlier was Washington Commanders backup Marcus Mariota, but he still put up 207 yards on 15-of-21 passing.
Rome Odunze looks like a stud, and DJ Moore still has WR1 upside. That duo should terrorize Pete Carroll’s secondary.
NFL Week 4 best bets made at 1:09 p.m. ET on 09/25/2025.
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