Last week was a rough one for favourites in the NFL, as each of the top three ATS faves took straight-up losses. But our staff is looking for that storyline to shift in Week 3.
We’ve got ATS predictions for all 16 games, and our staff writers are backing the favourites in 10 of them.
Check out our NFL Week 3 ATS picks for predictions and analysis on every game.
NFL Week 3 ATS picks
NorthStar Bets’ Avery Perri, Jordan Horrobin, Spencer Closs and Chris Toman offer up their NFL Week 3 ATS picks for all 16 games.
NFL odds as of 11:00 a.m. ET on Thursday, Sept. 19, 2024.
Click odds from any game to add selections to your betslip.
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Patriots vs. Jets (Thursday, Sept. 19: 8:20 p.m.)
NorthStar Bets line: New York -6
Perri says: New York hasn’t been favoured by this many points over its divisional rival since 2000. With that said, I think it’s deserved. Aaron Rodgers is settling into a groove and the Jets simply have more talent on the offensive side of the ball. Jerod Mayo’s group is frisky but I can’t see Jacoby Brissett doing damage behind a banged-up offensive line.
Pick: Jets -6
NFL Week 3 ATS picks: The Sunday slate
Bears vs. Colts (Sunday, Sept. 22: 1:00 p.m.)
NorthStar Bets line: Indianapolis -1.5
Perri says: Two young, unproven quarterbacks lock horns when Caleb Williams takes on Anthony Richardson. Neither has looked particularly strong so far, so I’ll ride with the home team. Chicago needed a miracle to beat Tennessee in Week 1 and its offence looked anemic against Houston on SNF. At least Indianapolis put 27 points up against the Texans in Week 1.
Pick: Colts -1.5
Giants vs. Browns (Sunday, Sept. 22: 1:00 p.m.)
NorthStar Bets line: Cleveland -6.5
Perri says: This is a full fade on Daniel Jones. The sixth-year signal caller bounced back against the Commanders last week but was awful against a strong Vikings defence in his season opener. Cleveland allowed just 13.9 points per game at home last year and is capable of keeping New York out of the end zone on Sunday.
Pick: Browns -6.5
Packers vs. Titans (Sunday, Sept. 22: 1:00 p.m.)
NorthStar Bets line: Tennessee -1.5
Horrobin says: Green Bay likely won’t be able to run as freely as it did in last week’s upset win over the Colts, but Malik Willis (12-of-14, 122 yards, one TD) showed enough for me to believe he can complement the Packers’ stout defence. Green Bay has forced an NFL-high six takeaways, while Tennessee has committed an NFL-high five turnovers. Ride with Will “Hellmann’s” Levis at your own peril.
Pick: Packers +1.5
Eagles vs. Saints (Sunday, Sept. 22: 1:00 p.m.)
NorthStar Bets line: New Orleans -2.5
Perri says: In Klint Kubiak we trust. New Orleans’ new offensive coordinator has the Saints leading the league in points per game and EPA per play. Going into Dallas and destroying the Cowboys was impressive and I’m keen on backing NOLA’s offence against an Eagles team that’s looked shaky, at best.
Pick: Saints -2.5
Chargers vs. Steelers (Sunday, Sept. 22: 1:00 p.m.)
NorthStar Bets line: Pittsburgh -1.5
Horrobin says: I view this game as a coin flip, where the last team may very well kick a field goal to win, 13-10. Both sides have a Week 1 win that could age well (Chargers over Raiders, Steelers over Falcons) and a Week 2 win against a team going nowhere. If there’s any separation, it might be with the fact that the Chargers have run the ball at will. I’ll ride with the team churning for 5.6 yards/rush.
Pick: Chargers +1.5
Texans vs. Vikings (Sunday, Sept. 22: 1:00 p.m.)
NorthStar Bets line: Houston -2
Toman says: I’m not putting much stock into Minnesota’s Week 2 victory over the 49ers. It was a good win to be sure, but the 49ers were on a short week and down star tailback Christian McCaffrey. Both teams are 2-0 but the undefeated Texans are the side I want to be on. C.J. Stroud has played excellent football and has a lot of weapons to work with. This will be the Vikings’ biggest challenge yet.
Pick: Texans -2
Broncos vs. Buccaneers (Sunday, Sept. 22: 1:00 p.m.)
NorthStar Bets line: Tampa Bay -7
Toman says: Bo Nix’s career isn’t off to a great start as the QB has thrown zero touchdowns and four interceptions through two games. Baker Mayfield has led the Bucs to a double-digit win over Washington and an upset victory over Detroit. Tampa has done its part to prove last year’s success was no fluke. The Bucs have covered both games after posting the second-best ATS record (11-6) in the NFL last season.
Pick: Buccaneers -7
NFL 4 p.m. slate
Panthers vs. Raiders (Sunday, Sept. 22: 4:05 p.m.)
NorthStar Bets line: Las Vegas -5
Horrobin says: Carolina was utterly outclassed in its first two games, but the quarterback change gives me hope that things will be tidier this week. Andy Dalton, who threw for two TDs in his lone start last year, relieves an embattled Bryce Young … who has two TDs over his past nine starts. At this number, Las Vegas is just 4-14-1 ATS since the start of last year.
Pick: Panthers +5
Dolphins vs. Seahawks (Sunday, Sept. 22: 4:05 p.m.)
NorthStar Bets line: Seattle -4.5
Toman says: Miami’s offence was awful in Week 2 before Tua Tagovailoa went down with a concussion. It was non-existent once he exited and Skylar Thompson took over at QB. Until Thompson proves he can get the ball to playmakers Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle, I’m staying away from the Dolphins. Seattle is banged up and has enjoyed a soft schedule, but it takes a 2-0 record into this home contest.
Pick: Seahawks -4.5
Lions vs. Cardinals (Sunday, Sept. 22: 4:25 p.m.)
NorthStar Bets line: Detroit -3
Horrobin says: I picked against Kyler Murray and the Cards last week, and they turned around and walloped the Rams, 41-10. Detroit beat the same L.A. squad by just six points (in overtime) the Sunday before. Arizona’s offence was in sport mode a week ago and should be able to keep pace with a team flying across the continent to play them.
Pick: Cardinals +3
Make your NFL Week 3 predictions
49ers vs. Rams (Sunday, Sept. 15: 4:25 p.m.)
NorthStar Bets line: San Francisco -7
Perri says: This is a tough one to pick with two banged-up offences but I’ll lean with the Niners. San Francisco can still attack on the ground and Los Angeles has gotten gashed in the trenches so far. Matthew Stafford has no Cooper Kupp or Puka Nacua, which should allow the Niners to stack the box and wreak havoc.
Pick: 49ers -7
Ravens vs. Cowboys (Sunday, Sept. 22: 4:25 p.m.)
NorthStar Bets line: Baltimore -1
Toman says: Baltimore could easily be 2-0 but enters Week 3 in must-win territory. After blowing a 10-point, fourth-quarter lead to the Raiders they now have to win on the road against the Cowboys, who were dismantled by the Saints last week. The Ravens have been significantly better at running the ball and stopping the run, and I think that proves to be the difference on Sunday.
Pick: Ravens -1
Sunday and Monday night ATS picks
Chiefs vs. Falcons (Sunday, Sept. 22: 8:20 p.m.)
NorthStar Bets line: Kansas City -3.5
Perri says: This could come back to bite me but I haven’t been that impressed with Kansas City. The defending champs eked out a one-point win over Cincinnati at home and were a toenail away from overtime against Baltimore. Those are two good teams but Kirk Cousins and the Falcons are coming off a big win and should keep rolling. KC is 6-8-1 ATS as a road favourite over the last three seasons.
Pick: Falcons +3.5
Jaguars vs. Bills (Monday, Sept. 23: 7:30 p.m.)
NorthStar Bets line: Buffalo -5
Horrobin says: Buffalo is only 5-6 ATS at home since the start of last season, but its average margin of victory in those games is 12.3 points. With that in mind, this is a very manageable spread for a team that’s looked sharp so far. After the Dolphins beat the Jaguars in Miami, 20-17, the Bills went down to South Florida and beat the Fins by three TDs.
Pick: Bills -5
Commanders vs. Bengals (Monday, Sept. 23: 8:15 p.m.)
NorthStar Bets line: Cincinnati -7.5
Toman says: This is a big line for an 0-2 team that was flat-out embarrassed in Week 1, ruining many survivor pools. That’s not the version of the Bengals we’re going to consistently see, but I’m not willing to lay more than a touchdown with them. The Commanders don’t excite me, though they have a good running game and the Bengals were shredded on the ground in back-to-back weeks.
Pick: Commanders +7.5
Staff Week 2 + season-long records: Closs: 9-6-1 (17-12-3) | Perri: 8-7-1 (15-14-3) | Horrobin: 7-8-1 (14-15-3) | Toman: 6-9-1 (12-17-3) | Psihogios: 5-10-1 (11-18-3)
Picks made at 11:00 a.m. on 09/19/24.
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