A pair of running backs headline these NFL Week 16 prop bets.
The pregame narrative: The Tua Tagovailoa era in South Beach is over, with Quinn Ewers getting the start for the Miami Dolphins on Sunday. I think De’Von Achane should be leaned on against an awful defence. Elsewhere, look for Bucky Irving to shine with the NFC South lead on the line.
Check out my top NFL Week 16 prop bets, featuring a fade on Trevor Lawrence.
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NFL Week 16 prop bets
Best bet: Irving over 64.5 rushing yards (-115)
Irving hasn’t cleared this total since returning from injury, but he’s been pretty consistent in terms of workload and output:
- Week 15 vs. Falcons: 16 rushes, 60 yards
- Week 14 vs. Saints: 15 rushes, 55 yards
- Week 13 vs. Cardinals: 17 rushes, 61 yards
Before landing on the injured reserve in October, the sophomore RB averaged 17.7 carries and went 2-2 vs. this line with a 63-yard performance mixed in.
I’m pretty confident Irving can blow past this mark if he gets a typical workload on Sunday.
The Carolina Panthers’ defence ranks 21st in yards per rush and 25th in EPA per rush. Irving torched his divisional rival twice last year, logging 265 total rushing yards while receiving 20+ carries in both games.
-> Bet on Irving vs. the Panthers!
In the first meeting, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers rushed for a combined 236 yards. Irving had 152, and Rachaad White added 76.
The Bucs should opt for a similar game plan with Baker Mayfield battling a shoulder injury.
Key stat: Irving has had 60+ rushing yards in five of his last six games.
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Best NFL picks
Achane over 84.5 rushing yards (-113): Mike McDaniel will want to see what he’s got in Ewers, but that doesn’t mean Miami will be throwing the ball 40 times — especially against the Cincinnati Bengals.
Cincy’s defence ranks 30th in yards per rush (5.3) and is allowing the most rushing yards per game (157.9).
The unit also ranks 30th in both EPA per rush and rush success rate. To put it mildly, it’s bad.
Enter Achane, who is capable of clearing this line against the best of teams. The third-year RB ranks third in rushing yards (1,186) and is averaging a monster 5.8 yards per attempt.
He only had 60 rushing yards against the Pittsburgh Steelers last week (on 12 carries, mind you). But he cleared this line in four straight before that, with a trio of 100-yard games.
Establishing the run game will be key to easing Ewers into action.
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Lawrence under 221.5 passing yards (-110): Lawrence is coming off the best game of his career (330 passing yards, six total TDs, zero turnovers) and has cleared this mark in four straight.
Taking the over seems like a no-brainer, right? I disagree.
Lawrence has beaten up on some bad teams during his recent run (Cardinals, Titans and most recently, Jets) and now faces a bona fide top-five defence on the road.
The Denver Broncos, led by reigning Defensive Player of the Year Patrick Surtain II, give up the fifth-fewest yards per game.
The last time Lawrence faced a defence of this calibre was in Houston on Nov. 9. He flopped, throwing for just 158 yards while taking five sacks.
I’m not moved by the QB’s recent performances and want to see him beat a truly great team before jumping on the hype train.
NFL prop bets made at 11:45 a.m. ET on Dec. 18, 2025.
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Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.