The NFL is finally back, and so are our staff ATS picks.
This week, the NFL is treating bettors to four nights of primetime action. We’ve got all of that covered, as well as each matchup in between.
Check out our NFL Week 1 ATS picks for predictions and analysis on every game.
NFL Week 1 ATS picks
NorthStar Bets’ Avery Perri, Jordan Horrobin, Spencer Closs and Chris Toman offer up their NFL Week 1 ATS picks for all 16 games.
NFL odds as of 11:00 a.m. ET on Thursday, Sept. 5, 2024.
Click odds from any game to add selections to your betslip.
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Ravens vs. Chiefs (Thursday, Sept. 5: 8:20 p.m.)
NorthStar Bets line: Kansas City -2.5
Horrobin says: Betting against the two-time reigning champs? Let’s do it. Baltimore was 5-2 ATS on the road last season, and all five of its regular season/playoff losses came in one-score games. I’m excited to see what Derrick Henry opens up for the Ravens’ offensive scheme.
Pick: Ravens +2.5
Packers vs. Eagles (Friday, Sept. 6: 8:15 p.m.)
NorthStar Bets line: Philadelphia -2
Horrobin says: Green Bay finished 2023 on the rise, winning six of its final eight games (plus a playoff game). The Packers went 6-6 SU as underdogs last year and look like a bargain with points against Philly’s questionable secondary. Remember, Green Bay is the “road” team … but this is a neutral site game in Sao Paulo, Brazil.
Pick: Packers +2
NFL Week 1 ATS picks: The Sunday slate
Cardinals vs. Bills (Sunday, Sept. 8: 1:00 p.m.)
NorthStar Bets line: Bills -6.5
Horrobin says: It’s still warm in Buffalo, so I don’t think the Bills’ home-field advantage will have as much bite as it would if this game was played in December. And there’s newfound hope for the Cardinals’ offence after Trey McBride’s sophomore surge and the addition of Marvin Harrison Jr. The Bills were only 5-5 ATS at home last year.
Pick: Cardinals +6.5
Panthers vs. Saints (Sunday, Sept. 8: 1:00 p.m.)
NorthStar Bets line: New Orleans -4
Closs says: Derek Carr finished with 25 passing touchdowns and eight interceptions a year ago. That led the Saints to a 9-8 record. Carolina fared much worse, finishing 2-15 and 0-9 on the road. The limited offseason improvements due to trading the 2024 first overall pick give me little hope in the Panthers showing anything new in Week 1.
Pick: Saints -4
Texans vs. Colts (Sunday, Sept. 8: 1:00 p.m.)
NorthStar Bets line: Houston -3
Horrobin says: If you believe in C.J. Stroud, this should be a justifiable spot to ride with the Texans. Houston has as enviable of a receiving corps as anyone in the NFL, along with the reigning NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year in Will Anderson. Last year, Stroud and the Texans earned a four-point road win over Indy in Week 18 to secure a playoff spot.
Pick: Texans -3
Jaguars vs. Dolphins (Sunday, Sept. 8: 1:00 p.m.)
NorthStar Bets line: Miami -3
Closs says: The Dolphins thrived when playing at home last season. They went 7-2 and I expect the same success this year. Jacksonville remains mostly intact besides replacing Calvin Ridley with first-round pick Brian Thomas Jr. Miami loves playing in the heat which resulted in a 9-3 start last season.
Pick: Dolphins -3
Vikings vs. Giants (Sunday, Sept. 8: 1:00 p.m.)
NorthStar Bets line: Vikings -1.5
Closs says: The Vikings lost Kirk Cousins in the offseason and 10th overall pick J.J. McCarthy to a season-ending injury. That leaves Sam Darnold and I’m unsurprisingly expecting a drop-off for the Vikings’ offence. I believe the Giants are the better team on both sides of the ball and they are playing at home.
Pick: Giants +1.5
Patriots vs. Bengals (Sunday, Sept. 8: 1:00 p.m.)
NorthStar Bets line: Cincinnati -8
Horrobin says: Ja’Marr Chase was back at practice on Wednesday and I’m expecting (read: hoping) he suits up on Sunday. Either way, this should be a soft landing for the Bengals against a Jacoby Brissett-led Patriots team with a projected win total of 4.5. New England went 4-7-1 ATS as an underdog last year.
Pick: Bengals -8
Steelers vs. Falcons (Sunday, Sept. 8: 1:00 p.m.)
NorthStar Bets line: Atlanta -3.5
Perri says: Mike Tomlin as a road underdog? Yes, please. The Steelers are 39-28-2 ATS in those scenarios since Tomlin took over as head coach (3-3 last season). Pittsburgh and Atlanta both have new quarterbacks under centre but I’ll side with Russell Wilson… in this game at least. Kirk Cousins is coming off a torn Achilles, got zero preseason snaps, and has to deal with a rabid defence.
Pick: Steelers +3.5
Titans vs. Bears (Sunday, Sept. 8: 1:00 p.m.)
NorthStar Bets line: Chicago -4
Perri says: I’m going to pump the brakes on the Bears’ hype train. Chicago has its supposed franchise quarterback and a deadly receiving corps but Tennessee is building something up, too. Will Levis has shown flashes of being a gunslinger and Ridley was brought in alongside Tyler Boyd to give the offence more pop. All the pressure is on Chicago and I’ll back Tennessee in a close game.
Pick: Titans +4
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NFL 4 p.m. slate
Broncos vs. Seahawks (Sunday, Sept. 8: 4:05 p.m.)
NorthStar Bets line: Seattle -6
Closs says: Another team that is completely redesigned on offence is the Broncos. Rookie quarterback Bo Nix looked promising in the preseason but the expectation to replace Wilson is a big one. Denver’s bad defence allowed the sixth-most points per game (24.3) and the Seahawks still have a potent offence with various threats.
Pick: Seahawks -6
Raiders vs. Chargers (Sunday, Sept. 8: 4.05 p.m.)
NorthStar Bets line: Los Angeles -3
Perri says: I say the Jim Harbaugh era begins in Los Angeles with a loss. Justin Herbert isn’t at 100% and the Raiders have put together plenty of solid results under Antonio Pierce. Las Vegas is 5-4 since he took over as head coach, going 5-2-2 against this line in those games. That includes a 63-21 victory over Los Angeles.
Pick: Raiders +3
Cowboys vs. Browns (Sunday, Sept. 8: 4.25 p.m.)
NorthStar Bets line: Cleveland -3
Perri says: I love the under in this game but am leaning with the Browns to cover. The Cowboys didn’t travel well last year and averaged 13.5 fewer points away from AT&T Stadium (23.3) than at home (36.8). Dallas was 0-4 ATS as a road underdog while Cleveland was a league-best 6-0 ATS as a home favourite.
Pick: Browns -3
Commanders vs. Buccaneers (Sunday, Sept. 8: 4.25 p.m.)
NorthStar Bets line: Tampa Bay -3.5
Perri says: I expect Jayden Daniels to have a rough debut. The No. 2 overall pick will be tasked with beating a solid defence on the road. Since 1970, rookie QBs are 12-13-2 ATS on the road in Week 1 and 8-19 straight up. Baker Mayfield and Co. found something toward the end of last season, winning five of their final six contests and a wild-card game. The Bucs should pick up where they left off.
Pick: Buccaneers -3.5
Sunday and Monday night ATS picks
Rams vs. Lions (Sunday, Sept. 8: 8:20 p.m.)
NorthStar Bets line: Detroit -3.5
Toman says: The Rams surprised last year, starting the season with a double-digit win as an underdog en route to a 10-7 record, good for a playoff berth (and a one-point loss to these Lions). Detroit was the only NFC team with a better ATS record. Los Angeles was 7-1 following the bye with its only loss coming in OT. Sean McVay teams are tough and the half-point hook on the spread makes this number appealing.
Pick: Rams +3.5
Jets vs. 49ers (Monday, Sept. 9: 8:15 p.m.)
NorthStar Bets line: San Francisco -4.5
Toman says: Aaron Rodgers’ Jets are getting plenty of hype ahead of what will be the QB’s first real season in New York. This is a loaded team on paper but Rodgers is 40 and the Jets have some real questions at receiver. San Francisco was the Super Bowl favourite for the majority of last season and is favoured to win the NFC yet again. The 49ers won five home games by double-digit points last season.
Pick: 49ers -4.5
Picks made at 11:00 a.m. on 09/05/24.
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