NFL conference championship Sunday is here, and with two tight spreads, any touchdown could decide who gets to play in the Super Bowl.
NFL prop bets narrative: Denver is a 5-point home underdog without Bo Nix, and every Bronco is plus money to score. Courtland Sutton has an enticing +285 price tag as an anytime touchdown scorer pick. Elsewhere, I like Kyren Williams in an NFC West grudge match between the Seattle Seahawks and Los Angeles Rams.
Check out my NFL touchdown predictions for the AFC and NFC title games on Jan. 25, 2026.
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NFL touchdown predictions
Best bet: Sutton anytime TD (+285)
Sutton is the second-longest-tenured Bronco on the roster, behind offensive tackle Garett Boles.
The eight-year vet has always been a solid player, but he began to score with serious consistency when Sean Payton took over in 2023:
- 2023-24: 10 touchdowns
- 2024-25: 8 touchdowns
- 2025-26: 7 touchdowns
That nets out to 25 touchdowns in 50 regular-season games. Before Payton, Sutton had just 14 touchdowns in 65 games played.
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Stidham, who hasn’t started since the 2023 season, is a definite downgrade at quarterback. But that could contribute to a positive game script for Sutton.
Denver will likely be playing from behind, and New England’s secondary is a little suspect.
The Patriots have allowed an 81.9 passer rating to opposing QBs, which ranks in the 19th percentile, according to RotoWire.
That unit may also be without cornerback Carlton Davis III (questionable), who exited New England’s divisional round matchup against the Houston Texans with a concussion after securing two interceptions.
Sutton accounts for 34.7% of Denver’s air yards and 21% of its team targets, which rank in the 92nd and 85th percentile among WRs, respectively.
Key stat: Sutton’s 19 red zone targets ranked fifth among all wide receivers this year.
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Anytime TD scorer pick: NFC title game
Williams anytime TD (+116): After a few weeks of splitting carries with Blake Corum, Sean McVay let Williams eat against the Chicago Bears:
- Williams: 25 touches, 117 yards, two TDs
- Corum: Six touches, 19 yards, zero TDs
Williams can be a legit bell cow, and I’m hoping there’s no funny business on Sunday with the NFC title on the line.
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The RB ranked ninth in touchdowns (13) and carries (259), and sixth in rushing yards (1,252) this year.
And look at what he did in two games against Seattle:
- Nov. 16 (in LA): 13 touches, 96 yards, one TD
- Dec. 18 (in SEA): 26 touches, 85 yards, zero TDs
The Seahawks’ defence is fierce, so bettors shouldn’t expect a very efficient game from Williams. But I like the value on him to score if he’s getting a boatload of touches.
NFL touchdown predictions made at 11:55 a.m. ET on Jan. 21, 2026.
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Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.