Kyle Pitts is coming off a monster game and headlines this week’s NFL touchdown picks.
The pregame narrative: Pitts found the end zone three times last week, and draws a great matchup against the Arizona Cardinals during Sunday’s afternoon window. On Saturday, I expect Saquon Barkley to score in a potential playoff-clinching game for the Philadelphia Eagles
Check out my top NFL Week 16 TD picks, featuring a pick on Buffalo Bills QB Josh Allen.
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NFL Week 16 TD picks
Best bet: Pitts to score (+140)
Did we just see the “real” Kyle Pitts? Or was last week’s performance against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers just a flash in the pan?
- 11 catches
- 166 yards
- 3 TDs
I’m not sure, but I think it’s fair to say Kirk Cousins has unlocked the tight end.
Pitts only had one 10-plus target game in all of his games with Michael Penix Jr. starting. He now has back-to-back games of 10-plus targets with Cousins at the helm.
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The former No. 4 overall pick is averaging eight catches and 112.6 yards in his last three contests. He should stay hot in this week’s Grade-A matchup.
Arizona has allowed the eighth-most yards (893) and sixth-most touchdowns (seven) to opposing tight ends this year.
The Cardinals’ linebacking corps is awful in pass coverage, and that should be a matchup that Cousins and Pitts exploit again and again.
Key stat: Quarterbacks have a 108.3 passer rating when targeting Arizona’s tight ends, per RotoWire.
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NFL Week 16 touchdown bets
Allen to score (-112): Allen’s MVP case is getting louder by the week, and I say he puts together another monster performance on Sunday against the Cleveland Browns.
The QB threw for three TDs last week to upend the New England Patriots, and logged 11 carries for 48 yards on the ground.
He didn’t find the end zone himself, but was really close on a few occasions.
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Allen has 12 rushing TDs on the season, and has cashed this bet in six of his last eight games.
Cleveland has the best defensive player in the game, but Myles Garrett can only do so much. The rest of the squad has regressed big time, and the Browns’ defence has been sieve-like in recent weeks.
Barkley to score (-121): This price seems too good to pass up.
Barkley has really struggled from an efficiency standpoint this year, but he still gets a ton of looks and finds the end zone at a respectable rate:
- 240 carries (fourth)
- 37 red zone carries (10th)
- Eight total TDs (22nd)
The dynamic tailback scored 15 TDs in last year’s OPOY-winning season with the Eagles, so we’ve seen a decent fall off, but Barkley should feast against the Washington Commanders.
Washington allows the seventh-most points (26.8) and second-most yards (382.6) per game and ranks 31st in defensive EPA play.
Barkley scored seven touchdowns in his three regular-season and playoff games against a much better version of this Commanders team last year.
NFL TD picks made at 3 p.m. ET on Dec. 19, 2025.
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Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.