The Portland Trail Blazers are catching the Los Angeles Lakers on a back-to-back Monday, and that matchup has my attention for my favourite NBA prop bet.
Tonight’s NBA prop narrative: Portland’s Jrue Holiday is off to a great start as a passer, and he draws a nice matchup to keep that going tonight. In an all-Texas tussle down in Houston, look for Max Christie to feed off an ultra-efficient start as a scorer.
Check out my favourite NBA player prop predictions for Nov. 3, featuring Nikola Jokic.
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NBA prop predictions
Best bet: Holiday 8+ assists (-150)
In his age-35 season, Holiday is still an impact NBA player.
The veteran point guard is now on his fifth team, and so far he’s played as many minutes as anyone on Portland.
He also has more than twice as many assists as any other Blazer.
Is it likely that Holiday’s current 8.7 assists/game rate — which would be a career high — holds up? No, but Portland is counting on him to be their primary passer, so obtaining eight-or-so assists on a nightly basis isn’t far-fetched.
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Holiday is seventh in the NBA in potential assists/game (14.3), which denotes the number of passes a player makes that lead directly to a shot.
Next on the list among Portland players is Deni Avdija at 10.3 potential APG, and then it drops off to 5.5 (Blake Wesley).
There’s a clear pecking order with Holiday at the top.
Holiday is coming off a 13-assist game to move to 4-2 vs. this prop. He has at least six assists in every game, which is a nice floor to work from.
Key stat: Holiday’s opponents, the Lakers, have allowed the sixth-most assists to opposing PGs (10.15/game), per Fantasy Pros.
More prop picks
Jokic over 46.5 points/rebounds/assists (-130): Jokic averaged a triple-double last year for the first time, and somehow that wasn’t enough to help him earn a fourth MVP award.
Well, he’s on track to average a triple-double again, and he currently leads the NBA in rebounds and assists on a per-game basis.
- 20.4 PPG
- 14.4 RPG
- 10.8 APG
- Triple-double in 4 of 5 games
Though he’s only 1-4 vs. this PRA total, Jokic has at least 43 PRA in every game.
Jokic typically feasts against the Sacramento Kings, who currently have the fourth-worst defensive rating in the NBA.
In his past five games vs. the Kings, Jokic has averaged 22.2/15.4/11.6 (47.6 PRA).
Christie over 10.5 points (-120): When will Christie’s superb efficiency lead to a greater shot volume?
The 22-year-old is shooting 53.3% from the floor through six games, going 16-for-32 from 3-point range in the process.
He plays big minutes (30.0 MPG) but is attempting fewer than eight shots per night.
-> Bet on Christie to clear his points total
Christie is 3-3 vs. this prop while scoring at least nine points in every game. He can’t possibly stay this efficient for long, but in the short term, I expect him to get a few more looks for the Dallas Mavericks.
Especially as the team hunts for offence with Anthony Davis, Kyrie Irving and Dereck Lively sidelined.
NBA player prop predictions made at 11:50 a.m. ET on 11/03/25.
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Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.