My top NBA prop prediction from Saturday’s slate is from a Mexico City game between the Dallas Mavericks and Detroit Pistons.
Tonight’s NBA prop narrative: Jalen Duren has established himself as an elite rebounder, and he faces a Mavericks squad dealing with injuries in its frontcourt. I expect him to clean the glass, and I’m also taking the overs on Anfernee Simons and Donte DiVincenzo’s 3-point totals.
Check out my favourite NBA player prop predictions for Nov. 1.
-> Join NorthStar Bets & bet on the NBA today!
NBA prop predictions
Best bet: Duren over 10.5 rebounds (-137)
Duren was a force on the glass from the second he joined the NBA, averaging 8.9 rebounds in 24.9 minutes a night in his rookie year with the Pistons.
He logged north of 10 boards per game in consecutive seasons after that and started a team-high 78 games for Detroit last year.
All of that is to say, Duren is a remarkably consistent rebounder who gets lots of run.
-> Bet on NBA props at NorthStar Bets
The 6-foot-10, 250-pounder will have a distinct size advantage tonight with Anthony Davis (calf) and Dereck Lively (knee) sidelined.
Daniel Gafford will make his season debut after missing the team’s first five regular-season games with an ankle injury. At 6-foot-10, Gafford is similar in stature to Duren, but it wouldn’t be surprising if he were on a minutes restriction.
The next-tallest player in Dallas’ lineup is 6-foot-9 point guard Cooper Flagg.
Key stat: Duren is 2-1 against this line in his last three games while averaging 12.6 rebounds.
NBA prop bets
Simons 3+ threes (+102): I’ll keep backing Simons at this number against just about any team.
No team attempted more 3s per game than the Boston Celtics last year, and Simons was brought in to keep that trend going.
- Simons averaged at least 3.1 threes in his last four regular seasons while never shooting below 36.3% from deep.
- The first-year Celtic has averaged 3.0 threes on 7.5 attempts so far (40.0% shooting).
Simons is averaging a healthy 28.2 minutes per game off the bench and has cleared this line in three straight games.
The Houston Rockets, Simons’ opponent tonight, have allowed the ninth-most 3s per game to opposing SGs so far.
DiVincenzo 4+ threes (+100): DiVincenzo is another active shooter from beyond the arc. And this sure feels like his time to shine with Anthony Edwards out for the next few weeks.
DiVincenzo hasn’t reached this milestone yet, but has hit exactly 3 threes in four straight games while shooting 42.9% from deep.
-> Bet on Simons and DiVincenzo to clear their 3-point totals
I love to see that kind of consistency.
A slight uptick in production should be expected against the Charlotte Hornets, who are a defensive mess.
Charlotte is 26th in defensive rating and is allowing opponents to shoot 39.8% from deep (third-worst mark in the NBA).
NBA player prop predictions made at 3:20 p.m. ET on 11/01/25.
-> Sign up to NorthStar Bets today!
Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.