I’m targeting three players on the NBA prop market for Wednesday’s busy basketball slate.
Tonight’s NBA prop narrative: Amen Thompson is on breakout watch and has a plus matchup he should take advantage of. Contributing across the board, I’m taking the over on his points/assists/rebounds line against the Memphis Grizzlies tonight.
Check out my favourite NBA prop picks for Nov. 5, featuring predictions on Nikola Jokic and Austin Reaves.
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Editor’s note: Reaves was ruled out for Wednesday’s game vs. the Spurs after this story was published.
NBA prop picks Nov. 5
Best bet: Thompson over 30.5 PRA (-120)
This is a great spot for the third-year guard who has nightly 20-point potential.
Thompson has yet to discover his 3-point shot through six games and his rebounding is down. But he remains a 50% shooter from the field on increased volume and is getting heavy minutes for a dangerous Houston Rockets team.
- The 22-year-old has logged 39-plus minutes in half his contests. Foul trouble and blowout wins prevented him from approaching that number in his other games.
- Thompson is averaging 28.3 PRA, propelled by career-best marks in points (17.0) and assists (5.5).
- Memphis is 23rd in the NBA in defensive rating and has struggled to defend in the paint, where the athletic Thompson does a lot of his scoring.
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The Grizzlies have also been weak on the perimeter, providing Thompson with clear scoring upside for tonight’s game.
He’s gotten to nine rebounds in two of his past three games after averaging 8.2 last season. It’s in the realm of possibilities that he clears this line on points and rebounds alone.
Key stat: Thompson has blown past this mark in three straight.
Today’s best NBA prop bets
Jokic over 48.5 PRA (-120): Once Jokic’s scoring improves, and there’s no reason to believe that it won’t, this line is probably set a couple of points higher most nights.
Even against a strong defensive team like the Miami Heat, I see an opportunity to buy a little low.
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- Jokic’s scoring average hasn’t been this light since the 2019-20 season. But he’s coming off a season-best 34-point effort and shooting 60% from the field.
- The three-time MVP remains elite on the glass (third in the NBA at 13.2 boards/game) and is dishing out a career-high 11.3 assists per night.
Those averages get us halfway to this line and we know he has 30-plus-point upside.
Denver is second in the NBA in offensive rating and Miami plays at the fastest pace in the game.
While these teams have been playing great defence (both top five in defensive rating), this feels like a shootout waiting to happen in Denver’s high altitude.
And the over/under backs that up. At 241 points, this is by far the highest total of tonight’s 11-game slate.
NBA player prop predictions
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Reaves over 6.5 assists (-129): Reaves’ numbers need context. LeBron James has been sidelined all season, and Reaves has played three of his seven games without Luka Doncic.
He’s not the next Luka in the making, but his early-season averages are star-level:
- 31.1 PPG
- 9.3 APG
- 5.1 RPG
- 90.3 FT% on 10.3 attempts
Reaves’ scoring will naturally take a backseat with Doncic (41.3 PPG) in the lineup. But that, in theory, can set him up to be more of a distributor, a role he’s handled well with the Lakers.
The fifth-year guard has three double-digit assist games and is 5-2 vs. this line.
Keep in mind: Reaves (groin) is questionable as of early Wednesday afternoon. Check our NBA injury report throughout the day for the latest on his availability.
NBA prop picks made at 11:41 a.m. ET on Nov. 5, 2025.
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Chris joined NorthStar Gaming from Covers.com where he was a publishing editor and wrote betting content. Before that, he was the sports editor at VICE Canada, worked for theScore and covered the Blue Jays for MLB.com. In addition to filling out the lineup card each day for the editorial team, Chris writes frequently himself, primarily on the NBA and MLB.