Two big men headline Tuesday’s top NBA player prop predictions.
Tonight’s NBA prop narrative: Joel Embiid is slowly ramping up, and he has a plus matchup to fill the basket against the Chicago Bulls. Elsewhere, look for Mark Williams to clean the glass against the undersized Golden State Warriors.
Check out my favourite NBA prop picks for Nov. 4, featuring a pick on Atlanta Hawks shooting guard Dyson Daniels.
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NBA prop picks: Nov. 4
Best bet: Williams over 8.5 rebounds (-130)
The Phoenix Suns are rebuilding, and Williams figures to be a big part of that puzzle.
Phoenix traded several assets, including a 2029 first-round pick, for the 7-foot-1 centre last offseason. Williams is just 23 years old and brings elite rebounding and efficient scoring to the mix.
He averaged 10.2 boards last year with the Charlotte Hornets and is at 9.0 through six games so far.
-> Bet on Suns vs. Warriors prop markets at NorthStar Bets
This should be a matchup where Williams can flex his muscles and reach double-digit rebounds.
Golden State has just one player above 6-foot-9 in its rotation. And that would be 25-year-old centre Quinten Post (7-foot-0, 238 pounds), who plays 12.7 minutes a night.
Draymond Green and Jimmy Butler are tenacious on the glass, but they’re both 6-foot-6. Williams has seven inches on each of them and should be at a distinct advantage.
Key stat: Williams had 12 and 13 rebounds in his two games against the Warriors last year.
Today’s best NBA prop bets
Embiid over 19.5 points (-130): Two years ago, this line would’ve been a laugher. But Embiid’s fall-off as an MVP-calibre scorer has been precipitous.
- 2023-24: 34.7 PPG, 52.9 FG%
- 2024-25: 23.9 PPG, 44.4 FG%
- 2025-25: 17.3 PPG, 46.0 FG%
Still, I think there will be opportunities to back the big man. And tonight is one of them.
Embiid has scored 20-plus points in three straight games, and he played a season-high 25 minutes against the Boston Celtics on Friday.
In that contest, he attempted 13 field goals and went to the line seven times. If we get that type of volume again, Embiid should be in line to clear this total.
Chicago plays at the ninth-fastest pace in the NBA and is giving up the eighth-most PPG to opposing centres, per Fantasy Pros.
Embiid had 31 points against the Bulls last season while attempting a season-high 28 shots.
-> Bet on Embiid to clear his points total
Daniels over 13.5 points (-118): Daniels isn’t your typical shooting guard. The 6-foot-7 defensive specialist rarely shoots from the outside and does a ton of damage in the paint.
He takes 56% of his shots at the rim and 36% of his shots in the short mid-range. Both rank in the 97th percentile from a shot frequency perspective, according to Cleaning the Glass.
That bodes well for tonight’s matchup against the Orlando Magic. Orlando is allowing the second-most points in the paint per game.
Daniels is 2-0 against this line since Trae Young went down with an injury, averaging 18.0 PPG while shooting 64.0% from the field.
NBA prop picks made at 11:32 a.m. ET on Nov. 4, 2025.
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Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.