James Harden headlines Friday’s NBA Cup prop betting predictions.
Today’s NBA props narrative: Harden has been vintage this season and has a Grade-A matchup against the Memphis Grizzlies tonight. Elsewhere, I’m looking for Mark Williams and AJ Green to capitalize on light rebounding and 3-point totals, respectively.
Check out my top NBA prop picks for Nov. 28.
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NBA prop picks Nov. 28
Best bet: Harden over 26.5 points (-120)
Harden looks ageless in season No. 19.
The Beard ranks 11th in scoring (27.9/game) and fifth in assists (8.4/game) while playing a monster 35.6 minutes a night.
His 30.4% usage rate ranks 13th out of NBA players with more than 10 games played.
-> Bet on James Harden vs. the Grizzlies tonight!
Kawhi Leonard is back in the Los Angeles Clippers’ lineup, which should take some scoring pressure off Harden. But the Grizzlies are a dreadful matchup for Kawhi and a perfect one for Harden (stats via Fantasy Pros):
- PGs vs. MEM: 28.9 PPG (third-most)
- SFs vs. MEM: 21.3 PPG (sixth-fewest)
Jaren Jackson Jr., aka the “Block Panther”, should make life difficult for Leonard. I expect Harden to pick things up and provide a ton of scoring from the perimeter.
Memphis has the sixth-worst 3-point defence in the NBA (37.3%), and Harden is attempting 10.1 threes a night.
Key stat: Harden is 5-1 against this line in his last six games.
Best NBA picks
Williams over 8.5 rebounds (-134): This seems like a very attainable line for Williams, who is off to a solid first season with the Phoenix Suns.
The big man is averaging 8.9 rebounds per game, ranking top 20 in offensive and defensive rebounds per 36 minutes, according to Basketball Reference.
Williams is coming off a season-high 16-rebound performance, and corralled 11 in the game before that.
-> Bet on Suns vs. Thunder here!
His Suns are huge road underdogs against the Oklahoma City Thunder, but I honestly expect this game to remain close.
Phoenix has been competitive so far and is a stellar 13-6-0 ATS.
Williams will have a plus matchup against an OKC team which ranks 27th in offensive rebounding rate. The Suns are a top-10 team in defensive rating, so I don’t think the Thunder will be automatic from the floor tonight.
NBA player prop predictions
Green over 2.5 threes (-138): Green is your stereotypical 3-and-D role player. The undrafted guard pretty much exclusively fires from deep — and he’s very good at it.
- Green is averaging 3.1 makes on 6.5 attempts per game (48.0%).
- He takes 90% of shots from 3-point range, which ranks in the 99th percentile for all wing players, per Cleaning the Glass.
This is Green’s first year starting, meaning he’s seen a serious uptick in minutes. With Giannis Antetokounmpo questionable, I envision a big role for him tonight.
-> Bet on Friday’s 11-game NBA Cup slate
But even if Giannis is in, Green should be involved in the game plan. The Bucks take on a New York Knicks team with the fifth-worst 3-point defence (37.9%) in the NBA.
Green cleared this line against New York in October and is 14-5 against it on the season.
NBA prop picks made at 9:10 a.m. ET on Nov. 28, 2025.
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Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.