Sunday’s NBA prop picks feature a fade on the league’s hottest player, James Harden.
Today’s NBA props narrative: Harden has been the lone bright spot on a Los Angeles Clippers team which has lost eight of its last 10 games. But he’s worth fading in Kawhi Leonard’s expected return against the Cleveland Cavaliers.
Check out my top NBA prop picks for Nov. 23, featuring picks on Mark Williams and Luka Doncic.
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NBA prop picks Nov. 23
Best bet: Harden under 24.5 points (-125)
Right now, it seems like Harden is the only guy standing between the Oklahoma City Thunder and the potential No. 1 overall pick.
OKC has L.A.’s first-rounder this year, and the Clippers are an outright mess sans The Beard.
Harden is averaging 31.7 PPG this month and scored a season-high 55 points last night. He’s gone over this line in five straight games, so why fade him?
-> Fade James Harden vs. the Cavaliers tonight!
The 36-year-old guard has done everything for L.A., which will eventually wear on him:
- Harden shot inefficiently in two back-to-backs so far (7-of-25 vs. PHI; 7-of-17 vs. OKC).
- Last year, Harden shot 39.0% from the field and 30.0% from deep in 12 games with no rest.
On top of that, Leonard is expected to return from a nine-game injury absence. That will take some pressure off Harden to score, allowing him to facilitate more.
Harden is averaging 32.0 points without Leonard and 23.0 points with him, taking six fewer shots per game when the Claw is in the lineup.
Cleveland is also holding opposing point guards to the fifth-fewest PPG, per Fantasy Pros. This seems like a logical night for some regression.
Key stat: Harden is 0-4 against this line vs. the Cavs since joining L.A.
Best NBA picks
Williams over 8.5 rebounds (-125): Spoiler alert: The San Antonio Spurs are a much worse rebounding team without Victor Wembanyama in the mix.
- With Wembanyama: 4th in rebounding rate, 7th in offensive rebounding rate
- Without Wembanyama: 23rd in rebounding rate, 29th in offensive rebounding rate
Williams is a big body on a solid Phoenix Suns team, and I expect him to be active on the glass this evening.
The 7-foot-1, 240-pound centre is averaging 8.2 rebounds this year and put up 10.2 last year with the Charlotte Hornets.
-> Bet on Sunday’s 8-game NBA slate
He doesn’t play as much as I would like — just 25.2 minutes/game — but should make the most of those opportunities against a middling Spurs lineup.
NBA player prop predictions
Doncic 4+ threes (-106): The Los Angeles Lakers might have LeBron James back in the mix, but everyone knows Doncic is the captain now.
The slimmed-down Slovenian has been on a tear this year, leading the league in scoring (34.6 PPG) while ranking second in 3-point volume (10.9 attempted 3s/game).
Doncic hasn’t been very efficient from deep, but that doesn’t matter to me.
-> Back Doncic against Utah on Sunday!
Doncic is 6-5 against this line overall, going 2-for-10 from deep against the Utah Jazz, tonight’s opponent, on Thursday.
Utah has the sixth-worst perimeter defence in basketball, so expect a better performance.
NBA prop picks made at 9:40 a.m. ET on Nov. 23, 2025.
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Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.