There are three 8 p.m. ET tip-offs in the NBA on Thursday night, and I’m targeting two of them for some prop bets.
Today’s NBA props narrative: The San Antonio Spurs host the Atlanta Hawks in a matchup that’s missing some key scorers. But in the wake of some absences, De’Aaron Fox and Jalen Johnson both have prime opportunities to ball out.
Check out my top NBA prop picks for Nov. 20, featuring a prediction on Sacramento Kings guard Malik Monk.
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NBA prop picks Nov. 20
Best bet: Monk over 12.5 points (-113)
I love this line for Monk, who’s 8-4 vs. this number.
The veteran shooting guard, who typically plays about 25 minutes off the bench, scored 15+ points in every game in which he hit the over.
A pair of dud performances (zero points, two points) have dragged down his scoring average — but he’s still at 13.3 PPG.
The Kings are on a back-to-back tonight, and I’m hoping that doesn’t change anything about Monk’s usage. In his lone game on zero rest this season, he scored 15 points on 7-of-10 shooting in 28 minutes.
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If Monk gets his typical minutes total tonight, this should be a smash play.
- Monk’s Kings face the Memphis Grizzlies, who allow the third-most points to shooting guards, per Fantasy Pros.
- The Kings and Grizzlies rank fifth and seventh, respectively, in pace this season. That means both sides should be willing to play quickly, and a high-possession game means plenty of scoring opportunities.
Last year, Monk absolutely toasted the Grizzlies. He shot 52.8% from the floor and scored 23, 31 and 28 points across three matchups against them.
Key stat: Monk has averaged north of 13.0 PPG in all four seasons with the Kings (15.2 PPG overall since joining the team in 2022-23).
Best NBA picks
Johnson over 39.5 points/rebounds/assists (-113): There are big names missing from both sides of tonight’s Hawks/Spurs matchup, which is part of the reason I expect Johnson to breeze past this line.
Trae Young (knee) will sit again for the Hawks, while Victor Wembanyama (calf) is out for the Spurs.
Without Young, Johnson should continue to run the show on offence for Atlanta. And without Wembanyama, he’ll face less resistance on his way to the rim.
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Johnson has now played nine games without Young, and he’s 6-3 vs. this prop. In those matchups, the 23-year-old forward has averaged 22.7 points, 10.6 rebounds and 7.6 assists (40.9 PRA).
The Spurs rank fifth in the NBA in defensive rating, but playing without Wemby — as well as Stephon Castle — makes a huge difference.
NBA player prop predictions
Fox over 2.5 threes (+128): At this price, Fox is worth taking a flier on after cashing this bet three games in a row.
The point guard has attempted exactly eight 3s in three straight games, going 11-for-24 (45.8%) from deep in that span. If that volume persists, this will look like a bargain.
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Fox was injured at the start of the year and has only played six games. He’s attempted at least five 3s in each of them, so there’s a decent floor to work with here.
In three games against the Hawks last year, split between his time with the Kings and Spurs, Fox shot 9-for-19 from deep and went 2-1 vs. this line.
NBA prop picks made at 9:20 a.m. ET on Nov. 20, 2025.
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Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.