VJ Edgecombe is on a scoring binge and I expect that to continue against the Denver Nuggets on Monday night.
Tonight’s NBA props narrative: The Philadelphia 76ers rookie is averaging 21.2 points over his past nine games entering tonight’s home date vs. the Nuggets. Elsewhere, Deni Avdija will put his high-volume assist production to the test in a matchup built for offence.
Check out my top NBA prop picks for Jan. 5, featuring a prediction on Dillon Brooks.
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NBA prop picks Jan. 5
Best bet: Avdija over 9.5 assists (-106)
Monday’s game between the Portland Trail Blazers and Utah Jazz has the highest projected total of the night (243 points), and it’s easy to see why.
- Utah and Portland both rank inside the top five in pace (i.e., possessions per game).
- The Jazz are allowing the most points per game in the NBA (126.7).
- Overs are 6-1 in the past seven meetings between these Western Conference teams — including a 136-134 win for the Blazers back in October.
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With all of that in mind, these teams should be trading buckets with ease. And I expect Avdija to help facilitate that.
Jrue Holiday’s calf strain early in the season elevated Avdija into the role as Portland’s top passer. He’s averaging 8.3 assists in 24 games without Holiday — after averaging 4.6 assists in 12 games with the veteran.
Those assist numbers have ratcheted up even higher in recent games. Avdija has posted 9.6 APG in his past nine games, tallying at least nine assists in seven of those matchups.
In fact, he’s finished with a double-digit assist total in four of his past five. With the scoring potential of tonight’s matchup against the defensively inept Jazz, that’s very much in play again.
Key stat: Utah is allowing an NBA-high 30.1 assists per game.
Best NBA picks
Edgecombe over 16.5 points (–106): The 76ers are catching the Nuggets at a good time, and I like Edgecombe to take advantage.
Denver will be playing its third road game in four nights (without its all-world centre Nikola Jokic, to boot). On Sunday, the Nuggets coughed up 127 points to the lowly Brooklyn Nets in a loss.
Enter Edgecombe, who has scored more than 20 points in seven of his past nine games.
He’s putting up plenty of 3s right now, which certainly helps the scoring upside. In that nine-game span, Edgecombe is shooting 39.1% on 7.7 attempted 3s per game.
-> Full betting markets for Monday’s NBA slate
Joel Embiid is probable to play for the Sixers, but the two-time scoring champ shouldn’t bite into too many opportunities for Edgecombe.
The first-year guard has cashed this bet in five of his past six games with Embiid in the starting lineup.
NBA player prop predictions
Brooks over 19.5 points (-118): Yesterday, I backed Brooks to go over 18.5 points at a -124 price against the toughest defence in the NBA. He came through, dropping 22 points on the OKC Thunder.
It doesn’t get a lot easier for Brooks tonight in Houston, as the Rockets are sixth in defensive rating while playing at the league’s third-slowest pace. Still, I see value here.
- Brooks is averaging a career-best 21.4 PPG.
- He has 20+ points in 16 of 29 games (hitting the 18-point mark 23 times).
- Brooks is 12-8 vs. this line since Nov. 21, and he finished with either 18 or 19 points in five of the outliers.
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Better yet, the Mississauga, Ontario native has already cashed this bet twice against his former team. He had 23 points in Houston on Dec. 5 and 29 points at home against the Rockets on Nov. 24.
The 29-point effort was on the second half of a back-to-back, which makes tonight’s no-rest scenario less daunting to bet on, too.
NBA prop picks made at 12:10 p.m. ET on Jan. 5, 2026.
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Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.