Bam Adebayo and Naz Reid have some Grade-A matchups that are worth targeting in Sunday’s NBA prop market.
Tonight’s NBA props narrative: Adebayo faces the banged-up New Orleans Pelicans, who could be without Derik Queen and Trey Murphy. As for Reid, he’s facing an opponent that gives up a lot of opportunities on the perimeter.
Check out my top NBA prop picks for Jan. 4, featuring a prediction on Dillon Brooks.
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NBA prop picks Jan. 4
Best bet: Reid over 2.5 threes (-118)
The Minnesota Timberwolves’ most effective 3-point shooter since the start of December isn’t Anthony Edwards. It’s not Donte DiVincenzo, either.
It’s Reid, who is shooting 37.3% from outside — the highest clip among T-wolves averaging at least 2.0 attempted 3s per game.
- Reid comes off the bench for Minnesota, but that doesn’t really take a bite out of his shot volume. On the season, he’s averaging 6.6 attempted 3s (second-most among all NBA centres).
- From Dec. 1 onward, Reid has been particularly active from deep. He’s averaging 2.9 makes on 7.9 attempts in that span.
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Tonight’s matchup against the Washington Wizards is a great one for Reid to continue firing away.
Washington allows the fourth-most 3s — makes and attempts — per game this season.
Last year, Reid shot 10-for-20 from deep against the Wizards in three matchups and went 2-1 vs. this prop.
Key stat: Reid is 10-6 vs. this 3s prop in his past 16 games.
Best NBA picks
Adebayo over 30.5 points/rebounds/assists (–114): Adebayo has had more than his share of poor shooting performances recently, but he’s in a get-right spot tonight against the Pelicans.
- New Orleans allows the sixth-most points, the fifth-most rebounds and the second-most assists to opposing centres (per Fantasy Pros).
- Last season, Adebayo had 39 and 42 PRA, respectively, in his two matchups vs. the Pelicans.
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Over his past seven games, Adebayo is shooting a miserable 38.8%. For a guy with a 53.2% career field goal percentage, that’s almost hard to do.
The Pelicans are a Grade-A matchup all the way around, so even if the scoring sags a bit, there are other ways he can stuff the stat sheet.
But I think now is the right time for the bruising centre to regain his scoring touch, too.
NBA player prop predictions
Brooks over 18.5 points (-124): Brooks and the Suns will face the defending champion Thunder for the third time this season, and it’s obviously a brutal matchup for any score.
After all, OKC ranks first in defensive rating (104.1), opponent points (107.1/game) and opponent field goal percentage (43.1%).
With that said, you should expect a below-average scoring output from Brooks tonight … but that’s already accounted for with this line.
- In 28 games this season, Brooks is averaging 21.4 PPG.
- He has 18+ points in 22 of 28 games.
- Brooks is 12-7 vs. this line since Nov. 21, and he finished with exactly 18 points in four of the outliers.
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The Mississauga, Ontario native scored 16 and 19 points, respectively, in his two prior matchups against the champs. In the 16-point effort, he only played 26 minutes in a 49-point blowout loss (Brooks averages over 30 minutes per night).
I don’t expect Brooks to soar past this number, but as long as the Suns don’t get laughed out of their own building, he’ll have a solid shot at the over.
NBA prop picks made at 9:50 a.m. ET on Jan. 4, 2026.
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Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.