Giannis Antetokounmpo is the star of Friday’s NBA prop picks.
Tonight’s NBA props narrative: As trade rumours swirl, Giannis remains at the centre of pretty much everything the Milwaukee Bucks are doing on offence (and defence, for that matter). Tonight, his assists prop really stands out against the Denver Nuggets.
Check out these NBA prop picks for Jan. 23, featuring predictions on Cam Spencer and Isaiah Joe.
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NBA prop picks Jan. 23
Best bet: Joe under 2.5 threes (-130)
The Oklahoma City Thunder have a bunch of guys who shoot a handful of 3s, rather than one or two dudes who are chucking up a ton.
Joe, one of seven OKC players averaging between 3.6 and 5.5 attempted 3s per night, is arguably the best in the group. He’s shooting 40.8% on 5.4 attempts.
That’s great, but it only equates to 2.2 makes per game. And Joe has been cashing in at an even lower volume lately.
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Over his past 18 games, Joe is averaging 1.5 makes on 4.1 attempts (37.0 3PT%). At a line of 2.5 threes, the under is 16-2.
In that 18-game span, Joe has attempted five or fewer 3s in 15 games. That sum of shot attempts is rarely going to get him over this total.
This line almost seems too good to be true, especially considering the matchup.
Key stat: Tonight, Joe faces an Indiana Pacers squad that allows the fewest 3s per game on the second-lowest 3PT% (32.9).
Best NBA picks
Giannis over 6.5 assists (-117): For a guy who’s averaging 5.6 assists per game, this line might seem like it’s asking for too much.
But tonight’s matchup, along with the Bucks’ roster situation, makes it seem like a perfectly doable target.
- Giannis will face the Nuggets, who are still without Nikola Jokic. Denver has allowed the second-most assists per game to power forwards, according to Fantasy Pros.
- In his past three games vs. the Nuggets, Giannis has 23 total assists. That includes an 11-assist performance against them in Denver earlier this month.
- Milwaukee will play without Kevin Porter Jr., who’s been their primary passer this season.
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This season, Giannis is second only to Porter in assists per game and potential assists per game (i.e., passes that lead directly to shots).
Although the Greek Freak is Milwaukee’s main scoring option, he should be doing plenty of distributing, too.
NBA player prop predictions
Spencer over 8.5 assists (-103): Ja Morant is out tonight, which should spring Spencer back into the Memphis Grizzlies’ starting lineup.
That makes a huge difference, as evidenced by Spencer’s starter/reserve splits:
- Starter: 30.8 minutes, 9.3 assists
- Reserve: 21.4 minutes, 4.1 assists
In his past three games as a starter, Spencer went 3-0 vs. this prop while posting 35 total assists.
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The New Orleans Pelicans have a brutal defence, ranking 27th in defensive rating and 29th in opponent assists per game. Spencer should be wheeling and dealing again.
NBA prop picks made at 10 a.m. ET on Jan. 23, 2026.
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Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.