Jalen Brunson and the New York Knicks will try to get out of a funk on Wednesday night in a home matchup against the Brooklyn Nets.
Tonight’s NBA props narrative: The Knicks are 2-9 in their past 11 games, but now they’ll face one of the NBA’s five teams with a sub-.300 win percentage. Brunson typically drives New York’s offence, and his points prop is curiously low tonight.
Check out a special all-Jalen version of NBA prop picks for Jan. 21, featuring predictions on Jalen Johnson and Jalen Duren.
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NBA prop picks Jan. 21
Best bet: Johnson under 7.5 assists (-154)
Johnson is still averaging 8.0 assists on the season, so it might seem questionable to pay this much juice on the under for this line.
But look at Johnson’s recent work as a passer, and it starts to make sense.
- This under is 8-0 in Johnson’s past eight games. He’s averaging 5.9 APG in that span.
- Johnson is averaging 12.4 potential assists in his past eight games, per NBA.com, which denotes the number of passes that lead directly to a shot.
- Before this eight-game stretch, he’d averaged 14.8 potential assists (which ranked sixth in the NBA at the time).
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Given that Trae Young played his final game for the Atlanta Hawks on Dec. 27, and was subsequently traded to the Washington Wizards, you might think Johnson would have an even larger opportunity now than before to rack up assists.
Instead, he has moved the other way, and the Hawks are taking more of a by-committee approach to distribute the ball.
Since Jan. 5, five Atlanta players are averaging between 3.6 and 6.6 assists — including newcomer CJ McCollum.
Johnson’s opponents, the Memphis Grizzlies, are 15th in the NBA in assists allowed per game. So it’s not like this matchup should yield above-average results for a guy who isn’t setting the table as often these days.
Key stat: Johnson has gone under 7.5 assists in 21 of 41 games (51.2%), which includes eight in a row.
Best NBA picks
Duren over 18.5 points (-112): This number is right around Duren’s season-long scoring average (17.8 PPG). Given the matchup, I’m pleasantly surprised to see that bettors don’t have to pay a premium.
Tonight, Duren and the Detroit Pistons will face the New Orleans Pelicans, who have the 28th-ranked defensive rating in the NBA.
Additionally, the Pelicans allow the fifth-most points to opposing centres (23.9/game) and the third-most points overall (122.2).
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Based on his scoring average, Duren is in coin flip territory on the typical night. But this is a matchup that really should help him land on the over.
According to Cleaning The Glass, the Pelicans rank 23rd and 27th on field goal percentage allowed at the rim and in the short midrange, respectively.
NBA player prop predictions
Brunson over 26.5 points (-118): The Knicks are slumping hard, but they should be able to right the ship against the woeful Nets tonight.
And frankly, whether they do or they don’t, this line is pretty disrespectful for Brunson.
Recently named as an all-star starter, Brunson is averaging 28.1 PPG this season. He is 23-15 vs. this prop.
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Brunson scored 22 points in 34 minutes last time out after missing a pair of games with an ankle injury. That points total might be a bit low for my liking, but the minutes total is encouraging to see.
In 18 full games before his injury, Brunson went 14-4 vs. this prop while averaging 30.1 PPG.
The Nets (12-29) have the NBA’s second-worst defensive rating over their past 10 games.
NBA prop picks made at 10 a.m. ET on Jan. 21, 2026.
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Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.