It’s been a banner year for Michael Porter Jr., who draws my attention in the NBA prop market for Monday night.
Tonight’s NBA props narrative: Porter was given the keys to the Brooklyn Nets’ offence after being traded there this offseason, and he’s been excellent all year. His points prop is at a very playable line tonight against the Dallas Mavericks.
Check out my top NBA prop picks for Jan. 12, featuring Payton Pritchard and Miles Bridges.
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NBA prop picks Jan. 12
Best bet: Porter over 26.5 points (-118)
If the Nets truly want to embrace a tank this season, they’ll probably want to get rid of Porter.
The ex-Nugget is doing his part and then some for the 11-win Nets, posting career-high averages in points (25.9), rebounds (7.4) and assists (3.4).
It’s really been an across-the-board improvement for Porter. He’s averaging about six more field goal attempts, three-and-a-half more 3s and two-and-a-half more free throws than during his Denver tenure.
-> Bet on MPJ tonight in Nets vs. Mavericks!
The 27-year-old rested last night, which is typical for him to do on one end of a back-to-back. He should be good to go on Monday, and this number looks like a smash to me.
- In 13 games since Dec. 1, Porter is averaging 27.8 PPG. He’s 10-3 vs. this points prop in that span.
- From December onward, Porter has been dominant beyond the arc, shooting 43.3% on a hearty 10.3 attempts per game.
MPJ’s Nets are visiting the Mavericks, who are missing a ton of size with Anthony Davis and Dereck Lively out. P.J. Washington is doubtful, too.
On Dec. 12, Porter went 6-for-10 from deep in Dallas as part of a 34-point performance.
Key stat: Porter has gone over 25.5 points in five of his past six games.
Best NBA picks
Pritchard under 6.5 assists (-118): I’m struggling to understand why this line is so high, but I’ll gladly take the under at a reasonable price.
- Pritchard is averaging 5.2 assists, and this under is 29-9 on the season.
- He hit the under in both matchups vs. the Indiana Pacers last month, posting exactly five assists apiece in those games.
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The Pacers are arguably the worst team in the NBA this season, but they haven’t been total pushovers on defence. Indiana ranks 20th in defensive rating and is allowing the seventh-fewest assists per game.
With Jaylen Brown listed as doubtful for the Boston Celtics, I’d expect Pritchard to be tasked with a heightened role as a scorer, not as a facilitator.
NBA player prop predictions
Bridges under 18.5 points (-112): The Charlotte Hornets have four players who average between 19.0 and 20.0 points, and sometimes it’s difficult to predict who’s going to get buckets on any given night.
Bridges looks like a reasonable fade candidate tonight in Los Angeles, where he’ll face a Clippers squad that allows the third-fewest points to opposing power forwards (per Fantasy Pros).
Yes, Bridges did sneak over this line with a 19-point effort when he faced the Clips at home in November, but that came with an uncharacteristically high volume of free throws. He shot 9-for-10 at the line.
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Since the start of December, Bridges has averaged just 3.1 free throw attempts per game. This under is 11-7 in that span, with Bridges putting up 16.8 PPG.
NBA prop picks made at 2:15 p.m. ET on Jan. 12, 2026.
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Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.