From Thursday’s four-pack of NBA matchups, I’m targeting a pair of plays in the Portland Trail Blazers vs. New Orleans Pelicans game.
Today’s NBA props narrative: Derik Queen continues to shine for the Pelicans in his rookie season and draws a matchup that is worth targeting. On the other side, Toumani Camara has some intrigue as a passer with a plus-money price.
Check out my top NBA prop picks, including a prediction on Boston Celtics centre Neemias Queta.
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NBA prop picks: Dec. 11
Best bet: Queen over 15.5 points (-104)
New Orleans (3-22) probably shouldn’t have handed out an unprotected first-rounder to move up for Queen. Then again, Queen looks pretty awesome so far.
The 6-foot-9, 250-pound centre has worked his way into the Pelicans’ starting lineup and is finding success as a traditional big.
- According to Cleaning The Glass, Queen attempts 93% of his shots from inside the arc. Of that, 42% of shot attempts come from the midrange (86th percentile among bigs).
- Portland allows a 47.5% field goal rate from the midrange. That’s the fifth-highest FG% from that distance among all teams.
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Queen has already diced up the Blazers once before, back on Nov. 12. He was still coming off the bench then, but he scored 26 points (12-of-18 shooting) in 37 minutes.
He joined the starting lineup a few games later and is averaging 15.0 PPG since then. Last time out, he put up a season-high 33 points on 11-of-15 shooting.
Portland won’t have 7-footer Donovan Clingan under the net tonight to get in Queen’s way. I expect a clear runway for the rookie to fill the net.
Key stat: Portland is allowing the sixth-most points to opposing centres (24.58/game), per Fantasy Pros.
Best NBA picks
Camara over 2.5 assists (+102): Jrue Holiday is the Blazers’ main facilitator when he’s in the lineup, but he’ll miss his 13th-straight game tonight. In his absence, Deni Avdija has been the team’s assist leader.
But there’s room for others to contribute, too, and Camara is one of those guys.
- Since Holiday’s first absence on Nov. 16, Camara is averaging 2.6 APG in 12 games. He’s generating 5.4 potential assists per game, which denotes passes that lead directly to shots.
- Camara is 7-5 vs. this prop without Holiday.
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The Pelicans allow the third-most assists per game (29.0), so there should be enough to go around for Avdija, Camara and others.
When the Blazers faced the Pelicans last month — a game Holiday played in — Camara had five assists in 38 minutes.
NBA player prop predictions
Queta over 8.5 rebounds (-125): I only first heard of Queta a few weeks ago, but he’s a guy I’m sure Celtics fans know very well.
The fifth-year centre is getting starter’s minutes for the first time, and he’s making the most of it. Through 22 games, he’s averaging 10.1 points and 8.2 rebounds in just over 24 minutes.
-> Bet on Neemias Queta vs. the Bucks!
Queta falls below this line more often than not. But I think there’s upside for the 7-footer in a matchup against the Giannis Antetokounmpo-less Milwaukee Bucks.
- Milwaukee allows the 11th-most rebounds per game to opposing centres (14.4).
- Overall, the Bucks are allowing the ninth-most rebounds per game (45.0).
Queta grabbed 11 boards against the Raptors last time out, and he posted an 18-rebound performance in the past two weeks.
He’ll be the tallest player on the court tonight, and his ceiling is high.
NBA prop picks made at 10 a.m. ET on Dec. 11, 2025.
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Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.