I’m buying in on Klay Thompson in a playoff-calibre atmosphere. That strategy has worked out many times in the past.
The pregame narrative: Can Thompson guide the Dallas Mavericks out of the play-in tournament? That remains to be seen, but I do like the over on his point total for Friday’s matchup against the Memphis Grizzlies. I’m also fading Onyeka Okongwu and Dereck Lively.
Check out the best NBA prop bets for the play-in tournament matchups on April 18.
NBA prop bets
Best Bet: Thompson over 14.5 points (-110)
Rumours of Thompson’s demise seem to have been exaggerated.
After the longtime Warrior walked to free agency, there was some skepticism about what Thompson would have in the tank for his age-34 season.
And sure, his volume stats are down — but his efficiency is holding up well.
- 2024-25 season: 39.1 3PT%, 90.5 FT%, 53.5 eFG%
- Career: 41.1 3PT%, 86.0 FT%, 54.9 eFG%
Thompson averaged 14.0 points per game this season, which was his lowest sum since his rookie year (2011-12). Still, that puts him right around this total — and I expect him to be heavily involved in a win-or-go-home matchup.
On Wednesday, the four-time NBA champion dropped 23 points on 8-of-11 shooting (5-of-7 from 3-point range). He played 33-plus minutes for the first time in a month, too.
Generating offence beyond the arc will be key for Thompson’s scoring ceiling, as it always has been. And the Memphis Grizzlies are a solid opponent for him to work against, as the Grizzlies allow the sixth-most attempted 3s per game.
Thompson was running point for the Mavericks in their first play-in game. The Grizzlies have allowed the third-most PPG to opposing point guards over the past month, per Betting Pros.
Key stat: Thompson scored exactly 15 points in back-to-back matchups against Memphis (despite playing fewer than 30 minutes in both of those games).
Best NBA picks
Lively under 5.5 rebounds (-138): In Wednesday’s play-in game, there were seven Mavericks players with at least three rebounds.
Lively wasn’t one of them.
The 7-foot-1 centre, who was the tallest man on the court for either team, finished with one rebound in 18 minutes.
Led by Anthony Davis, the Mavs have a small army of capable rebounders that needn’t rely on Lively. And given that he hasn’t played 20-plus minutes since January, I’m not looking to rely on him either.
Memphis centre Zach Edey is averaging 15.9 rebounds/game this month, and the Grizzlies allow the ninth-fewest rebounds to opposing centres.
Okongwu under 10.5 rebounds (+100): At 6-foot-8 and 235 pounds, Okongwu is a severely undersized centre. And this line is asking a lot of him.
- Okongwu is averaging 10.0 rebounds in 41 games since being promoted to the starting lineup in January.
- He has gone under 10.5 rebounds in 25 of those 41 games (61.0%).
The fifth-year big has already seen the Miami Heat three times as a starter this year, and he finished with nine or fewer boards in each of those games.
Bam Adebayo (6-foot-9, 255 pounds) might be a bit undersized for a centre, but the Heat also have 7-footer Kel’el Ware in the frontcourt.
Miami has allowed the third-fewest rebounds to opposing centres in the past 30 days.
NBA prop picks made at 2:07 p.m. ET on 04/18/2025.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.