I’ve got three prop bets for Wednesday’s win-or-go-home NBA play-in slate.
The pregame narrative: The action begins in Miami when the Heat host the Chicago Bulls. I like each team’s point guard, Tyler Herro and Josh Giddey, to show up. Later on, back Anthony Davis to torch the Sacramento Kings..
Check out the best NBA prop bets for the play-in tournament matchups on April 16.
NBA prop bets
Best Bet: Herro over 24.5 points (-121)
Herro has made a name for himself as a high-volume, high-accuracy 3-point shooter. Cashing in on a bunch of deep balls would be nice for this wager, but it probably won’t happen against the Bulls.
Chicago has held opponents to the second-lowest 3-point percentage this season (34.4%)… so why am I taking the over?
Herro has tapered off his 3-point usage since the all-star break, which also coincided with Jimmy Butler’s departure, and his overall scoring numbers haven’t dipped:
- Pre-ASG (51 games): 24.6 PPG, 9.7 three-point attempts/game
- Post-ASG (26 games): 24.0 PPG, 6.7 three-point attempts/game
The point guard is finding ways to get to the basket and attack in the mid-range, and that’s where I expect him to do damage tonight.
Chicago plays at the second-fastest pace in the NBA and allows the second-most points per game to opposing PGs, according to Fantasy Pros.
This should still be a smash spot for Miami’s top dog.
Key stat: Herro scored 30 points in his last game against the Bulls on 13-of-26 shooting (2-of-7 from deep).
Best NBA picks
Giddey over 1.5 threes (+108): Giddey does it all for the Bulls, and you could make a solid argument to back him on any prop market on Wednesday.
But I like this plus-money value for him to can a pair of 3s for a few reasons:
- Giddey is shooting 45.1% from deep since February first. In that span, he is 17-7 against this line.
- Miami is giving up the most 3-pointers per game to opposing point guards (3.54).
Giddey doesn’t take a ton of 3s, but is hyper-efficient. He’s cleared this line in all three games against the Heat this year on combined 8-of-15 shooting.
Davis over 26.5 points (-120): Do Mavericks fans wish Luka Doncic was still playing in Dallas? Yes. Is Davis still a top-10 player in the NBA when healthy? Also yes.
The Brow has been hampered by injuries since the trade, only playing in nine games for the Mavs. In those contests, he’s averaging 20.0 points and is 2-7 against this line.
That’s not exactly a great sell, but Davis is on a four-game stretch where he dropped 23, 13, 27 and 34 points.
And on Wednesday, he gets to play a Kings team which allowed the second-most points per game to opposing power forwards this season.
Barring another injury, I love AD’s chances of having a game.
NBA prop picks made at 2:27 p.m. ET on 04/15/2025.
Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.