Get set for Tuesday’s NBA play-in tournament doubleheader with a trio of prop bets.
The pregame narrative: In the late game, I like Zach Edey to stay dominant as a rebounder the way he has the past two weeks. In the earlier matchup, fade Trae Young and look for a big night from Paolo Banchero.
Check out the best NBA prop bets for the play-in tournament matchups on April 15.
NBA prop bets
Best Bet: Young under 10.5 assists (-138)
Fading the NBA assists leader in a playoff-calibre game? Sure, let’s give it a go.
Young averaged 11.6 assists per game this season, which makes the under on this total look like the wrong move. But the context of Tuesday’s matchup means a great deal to me.
The Orlando Magic love nothing more than to play a slow, grind-it-out game where physicality and defensive responsibility trump inflated box scores and offensive pizzazz.
Orlando plays at the slowest pace in the NBA (96.51 possessions/game) and owns the second-best defensive rating (109.1 points/100 possessions).
Fewer possessions means fewer assist opportunities. And the defensive rating tells us that those possessions tend not to come easy.
- Young finished with 10 assists when he faced the Magic last week, but he’s gone under the 9.5-assist mark in 4 of 6 games since the start of last season.
- The under on this prop is 3-1 in Young’s road matchups against Orlando.
I know Young averaged an NBA-best 20.7 potential assists this year, and thus would need only half the shots to drop on an average night for this bet to flop.
But I’m buying in on the Magic upholding its stylistic reputation at home in a meaningful game.
Key stat: Orlando allows the fewest assists per game to its opponents (22.8).
Best NBA picks
Banchero over 30.5 points (-112): Banchero is the Magic’s offence. That statement is only slightly hyperbolic.
- His 33.0% usage rate ranks fourth in the NBA, behind Giannis Antetokounmpo, LaMelo Ball and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander.
- Banchero has attempted 20+ shots in 29 of 46 games this season.
The No. 1 overall pick from 2022 is known for his volume-based production rather than his efficiency. But that’s fine with me if the bet cashes.
Banchero has hit the 30-point milestone in nine of his past 14 games while shooting 47.6% from the field on 22.1 shot attempts.
He has also cashed this bet in four of his past five games against Atlanta (since January 2024).
Edey over 10.5 rebounds (-125): Will the Grizzlies go small to match the Warriors or try to use their size mismatch as an advantage? I’m hoping it’s the former.
Edey, at 7-foot-4, is playing some inspired basketball around the rim this month. He’s averaging 15.7 rebounds in six games.
That includes a 16-rebound performance against Golden State on April 1. No matter who the Warriors throw at him down low, Edey is bigger and will have a chance to dominate.
The Warriors allow the third-most rebounds per game to opposing centres (16.29), per Betting Pros.
NBA prop picks made at 4:00 p.m. ET on 04/14/2025.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.