I’m recommending three players on the prop market for tonight’s 11-game NBA slate.
The pregame narrative: I like Austin Reaves to fill the stat sheet, James Harden to make it rain from deep and Wendell Carter Jr. to clean up on the glass.
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Best bet: Reaves over 26.5 points/rebounds/assists (-125)
Reaves is cooking, carrying a significant offensive load through four games and receiving heavy minutes.
The fourth-year guard is getting 36.0 minutes of run a night, leading to a scoring average of 19.3 points.
That’s third on L.A. right behind LeBron James, who plays his hometown Cleveland Cavaliers tonight.
Reaves is contributing across the board in addition to scoring at an efficient rate (54.7% from the field, 48.0% from deep), averaging 7.0 rebounds and 5.3 assists.
He cleared this number in three games and landed on 25 in the other, which was Los Angeles’ season opener.
Anthony Davis is a complete wrecking ball right now, averaging 32.8 points on 55.0% shooting.
His usage rate is above 30% for the first time as a Laker, and his ability to efficiently score at large volumes should help Laker ball distributors — like Reaves — pile up assists.
The Cavaliers are a strong defensive team, but I still like this line considering the floor time Reaves is getting.
Key stat: Reaves is averaging 31.6 PRA per game.
Quick pick
Harden over 2.5 threes (-107): The Los Angeles Clippers star has fallen under this number in all three games.
That said, Harden is chucking the ball from deep and is back in score-first mode as the No. 1 option with Kawhi Leonard out.
The veteran guard has the ball in his hands a lot — he’s third in the NBA in usage — and is averaging 8.7 attempts per game. We have to go back to the 2019-20 season for the last time Harden had that volume.
While he’s been cold, hitting just 19.2% of his shots from deep, he’s averaging 37.7 minutes a game. As long as Harden is on the court and hoisting 3-point shots without another alpha playing alongside him, I’ll target him at this number.
Tonight he gets the Portland Trail Blazers, who have allowed opponents to shoot a healthy 37.5% from distance early on.
Carter over 9.5 rebounds (-124): The Orlando Magic centre gets the team that drafted him tonight: the Chicago Bulls.
Carter isn’t a big offensive piece but he’s the team’s best rebounder and has started the season with four consecutive double-digit rebounding games.
Only nine players are averaging more than his 11.3 per game.
After seeing his minutes dwindle last year, he’s just up over 30.0 minutes a night for the first time in his career. It’s a sizeable jump from the 25.6 he logged a season ago when he averaged a career-low rounding total (6.5).
Carter averaged at least 8.5 rebounds in three of the four prior years and Orlando has been significantly better on the glass than Chicago.
Picks made at 1:20 p.m. on 10/30/2024.
Chris joined NorthStar Gaming from Covers.com where he was a publishing editor and wrote betting content. Before that, he was the sports editor at VICE Canada, worked for theScore and covered the Blue Jays for MLB.com. In addition to filling out the lineup card each day for the editorial team, Chris writes frequently himself, primarily on the NBA and MLB.