Two Denver Nuggets highlight Wednesday night’s top NBA prop picks.
The pregame narrative: I have plays on teammates Christian Braun and Michael Porter Jr., in addition to recommendations on Ausar Thompson and Khris Middleton.
Check out the best NBA prop bets for March 5.
NBA prop bets
Best bet: Braun over 20.5 points/rebounds (-120)
I’m pouncing on this. This line is way too light as far as I’m concerned.
The Nuggets guard has been balling and clearing this line with ease of late.
- Braun is coming off a 24-point, six-rebound effort in a loss to the Boston Celtics.
- In February, he averaged 17.7 points and 7.2 rebounds.
- He got 35 minutes a game last month and saw his largest shot volume from the field.
Braun is a solid contributor to Denver’s well-balanced offence and has been excellent on the glass.
For everyone, including the 23-year-old, there should be more rebounds available tonight with Domantas Sabonis on the sidelines for the Sacramento Kings.
Key stat: Since Feb. 1, Braun is 10-3 against this line.
Best NBA picks
Porter over 2.5 threes (+104): Sticking with the Nuggets, this is a good spot to get Porter at better than even money.
The sharpshooter is drilling 2.5 triples per game on 41.0% percent shooting. February was his best 3-point shooting month of the season and he faces a team that struggles to contain opponents from deep.
Sacramento is tied for last in the NBA in opponent 3-point percentage. Only two teams allow more threes on a nightly basis.
Porter fell short of this line the last time he faced Sacramento but got up eight shots from long range. He’s a great bet to clear this number if we see a repeat of that volume.
Thompson over 12.5 points (-110): The Detroit Pistons will be without Tobias Harris tonight, the team’s third-leading scorer post-all-star-break, and face the Los Angeles Clippers, who are on a back-to-back.
Extra looks without Harris could go a long way for the efficient Thompson, a modest scorer who’s shooting 56.7% from the field on the season and averaging 13.1 points per game since the start of February.
Over that 14-game stretch, Thompson has cleared this line nine times.
The second-year forward has dropped 13-plus points in three straight and will in all likelihood see an undermanned Clippers squad after the club played Tuesday night in Phoenix.
Back veteran Middleton in plus matchup
Middleton over 14.5 points (-118): The stage is set for one of the ugliest games of the season.
Both the Utah Jazz and Washington Wizards are banged up and playing for nothing more than the lottery. But that doesn’t mean tonight’s game is without betting opportunity.
Middleton will represent the biggest name on the floor and he’s the guy I’m targeting.
The veteran is coming off his two best games with the Wizards, dropping 16 points on Monday and 17 over the weekend.
His minutes have been curbed to around 25 a night, but the oft-injured forward faces a horrendous Jazz team.
- The Jazz are last in the NBA in defensive rating.
- They’ve allowed 130+ points in 5 of their last 12.
- No team allows more 3-point attempts/game.
While Middleton hasn’t shot well from long range with Washington, he’s historically been a strong 3-point shooter and will have a good opportunity to get going from deep Wednesday night.
Only the New Orleans Pelicans are surrendering more threes per game.
Picks made at 2:04 p.m. ET on 03/05/2025.
Chris joined NorthStar Gaming from Covers.com where he was a publishing editor and wrote betting content. Before that, he was the sports editor at VICE Canada, worked for theScore and covered the Blue Jays for MLB.com. In addition to filling out the lineup card each day for the editorial team, Chris writes frequently himself, primarily on the NBA and MLB.