The new NBA week kicks off with seven games and I’m dialling up three prop picks for the evening’s slate.
The pregame narrative: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has stepped up his 3-point shooting and headlines the plays. Fellow star guard Ja Morant is also featured alongside Detroit Pistons big man Jalen Duren.
Check out the best NBA prop bets for March 3.
NBA prop bets
Best bet: Gilgeous-Alexander over 1.5 threes (-122)
Gilgeous-Alexander is projected for another big scoring night on a back-to-back against the Houston Rockets.
The Oklahoma City Thunder superstar’s points line is 31.5. He’s scored 30-plus points in well over half of his games and leads the NBA in PPG.
Assuming he can flirt with 30 again, I like him to can a couple of triples and believe there’s value on his 3-point prop.
Gilgeous-Alexander isn’t a long-range assassin but he’s been hitting deep shots with more frequency lately.
- He’s cleared this number in 10 of his last 15 games.
- SGA is shooting 42.7% from the perimeter over that stretch.
- He’s 7-4 against this line on the second night of a back-to-back.
Houston allows the fewest 3-pointers per game in the Western Conference, but that’s baked into this price.
Gilgeous-Alexander was priced around -150 for yesterday’s game against the San Antonio Spurs, whom he drilled three 3s against.
Key stat: Gilgeous-Alexander is averaging 2.4 threes per game since Feb. 1.
Best NBA picks
Duren over 24.5 pts/reb (-115): The Utah Jazz represent a plus scoring matchup for Duren, who’s coming off his best month of the season.
Duren averaged 13.6 points per game in February and cleaned up on the glass for the surging Pistons.
Detroit’s big man looks like a good bet to excel in both areas again tonight. Utah allows the sixth-most points per game to centres, per Betting Pros.
- Duren has double-digit boards in 12 of his last 15 games.
- He’s 9-6 vs. this line over that stretch.
- Since Jan. 1, he’s topped this mark in 17 of 29 games.
Morant over 23.5 points (-118): Morant (shoulder) is questionable but I expect him to feast if he’s out there.
Tonight’s game against the Atlanta Hawks has an enormous total of 253.5 points. It’s by far the biggest of Monday’s slate.
The Atlanta Hawks are 27th in the NBA in points allowed per game and the Memphis Grizzlies are right behind them, ranking 25th.
These teams are No. 1 and 2 in the NBA in pace and Memphis is just outside the top five in offensive rating.
There should be a ton of scoring tonight and Atlanta has been getting torched by point guards.
Gilgeous-Alexander, Cade Cunningham (twice) and Jalen Brunson are among the PGs who have dropped 30-plus points on Atlanta over the last month and several others have cleared this line.
Morant ended February with back-to-back 25-plus-point games and hit that number in five of nine contests last month.
Picks made at 12:37 p.m. ET on 03/03/2025.
Chris joined NorthStar Gaming from Covers.com where he was a publishing editor and wrote betting content. Before that, he was the sports editor at VICE Canada, worked for theScore and covered the Blue Jays for MLB.com. In addition to filling out the lineup card each day for the editorial team, Chris writes frequently himself, primarily on the NBA and MLB.