Los Angeles Clippers star Kawhi Leonard headlines the top prop picks for Tuesday’s light four-game NBA slate.
The pregame narrative: Leonard is heating up for the surging Clippers and I expect him to stay hot vs. the NBA-best Cleveland Cavaliers. I also have plays on LaMelo Ball and Cameron Johnson.
Check out the best NBA prop bets for March 18.
NBA prop bets
Best bet: Leonard over 21.5 points (-124)
The Cavaliers have one of the best defences in the NBA (No. 7 on the season, No. 2 since the break), making this a difficult assignment.
Additionally, Norman Powell, the Clippers’ leading scorer, is back after a month-long absence.
Those two things are worth highlighting but aren’t of great concern to me.
Powell (seven points in 23 minutes in his return Sunday) had a great run while Leonard was injured earlier this season. But I don’t think anyone expects him to pace the Clippers in scoring moving forward.
Leonard is healthy and James Harden is having his best offensive month of the season. Powell’s days of averaging 23.4 PPG are probably over.
That means more for others, and I think Leonard is an obvious beneficiary.
If the oft-injured Leonard didn’t miss two months to start the season, we’re not having a conversation about who the top dog on this team is.
Here’s what matters: Leonard is logging heavy minutes and balling.
- Leonard has played 35+ minutes in seven of his last eight games. The one time he came under was in a blowout 35-point win.
- He has scored 23+ points in three consecutive and reached the 20-point mark nine times in 11 games out of the break.
- The veteran’s two highest-scoring games of the season (33 points, 29 points) have come in March.
Key stat: Leonard is averaging 23.1 points and 2.4 threes over his last 10 games.
Best NBA picks
Ball under 27.5 points (-120): This is a juicy matchup for Ball.
The Atlanta Hawks allow the fourth-most points in the NBA and are 29th in opponent 3-point percentage.
Ball likes to shoot and fires from long range as much as anyone in the league. On top of that, teammate Miles Bridges (25.1 PPG since the break) is out tonight.
The Charlotte Hornets star guard should perform, but this is a huge number I can’t bite on.
With the caveat that he’s been battling injuries, Ball is 1-19 vs. this line over his last 20 games.
He cleared this line in four of his first six games this season, but only four times since the end of December.
Johnson over 16.5 points (-129): Tonight’s matchup against the Boston Celtics won’t do Johnson any favours, but he’ll benefit from the absence of Brooklyn Nets teammate Cam Thomas.
- Johnson’s scoring goes up by 3.0 PPG with Thomas out of the lineup, per StatMuse.
- He’s 7-1 against this line in his last eight games without Thomas, which includes a 23-point effort vs. the Celtics on March 15.
- Johnson has cleared this number in 12 of 17 games since the start of February.
The sharpshooter should be expected to carry a heavy load tonight.
He has logged 35-plus minutes in each of his last three games and takes more than half his shots from distance, converting at a 40.1% clip.
NBA prop picks made at 11:28 a.m. ET on 03/18/2025.
Chris joined NorthStar Gaming from Covers.com where he was a publishing editor and wrote betting content. Before that, he was the sports editor at VICE Canada, worked for theScore and covered the Blue Jays for MLB.com. In addition to filling out the lineup card each day for the editorial team, Chris writes frequently himself, primarily on the NBA and MLB.