Ja Morant and Kevin Durant headline tonight’s top prop picks for Wednesday’s nine-game NBA slate.
The pregame narrative: Both Western Conference stars are playing high-end ball and I expect that to continue. I also have a play on Miami Heat sharpshooter Tyler Herro.
Check out the best NBA prop bets for March 12.
NBA prop bets
Best bet: Morant over 26.5 points (-108)
This is a hefty number but Morant is on fire ahead of tonight’s matchup.
Morant has been slowed by injuries once again this season, and it shows in his scoring average: 21.7 points per game.
But he sure looks healthy now. Since February, Morant has dropped 24.5 PPG.
- Morant has scored 25-plus points eight times in those 13 contests, including five of his last six.
- Over those six games, the point guard has taken 20+ shots five times.
Everything points to another big scoring night. March has so far been Morant’s top month for scoring, minutes played and shot volume.
And he gets a juicy matchup against the Utah Jazz, who are last in the Western Conference and rank 29th in the NBA in defensive rating.
Key stat: Utah allows the third-most points to point guards, per Betting Pros.
Best NBA picks
Durant over 30.5 points and rebounds (-130): We need 31 combined points and rebounds from Durant tonight, a number he has been smashing.
- Durant is averaging 29.0 points and 8.0 rebounds in five March games on 40.1 minutes a night.
- He’s cleared this line in four of those games — landing on 30 in the outlier — and did it on points alone his last time out (35 points vs. Grizzlies).
- The veteran is 7-4 against this line since the All-Star Game.
Durant dropped 37 points and five rebounds in the game before the break against the Houston Rockets, who he sees tonight.
The Phoenix Suns are desperate for wins in their attempt to get into the play-in round and will ride their leading scorer as long as they’re in the mix.
Herro over 21.5 points (-125): This isn’t a great matchup for Herro on the surface but he’ll get the Los Angeles Clippers on a back-to-back.
Los Angeles defends guards well, ranks fourth in defensive rating, and limits opponents from the outside.
But the Heat will have the rest advantage and the Clippers are sure to be undermanned. Kawhi Leonard will almost certainly sit.
Herro is slumping in what’s been a career year but this is still a light line and not a number we’re able to get him at often.
Despite a slow March (20.4 PPG), Herro has notched 21-plus points in four of five games.
The long-range assassin is 6-4 against this line since the ASG and can get dangerous from deep in a hurry, giving him big scoring upside every night.
NBA prop picks made at 9:30 a.m. ET on 03/12/2025.
Chris joined NorthStar Gaming from Covers.com where he was a publishing editor and wrote betting content. Before that, he was the sports editor at VICE Canada, worked for theScore and covered the Blue Jays for MLB.com. In addition to filling out the lineup card each day for the editorial team, Chris writes frequently himself, primarily on the NBA and MLB.