Monday’s basketball slate is loaded. There are 12 games in the NBA and I’m dialling up four prop picks for the busy night.
The pregame narrative: My best bet is on Kevin Durant and I’m expecting some other stars to deliver scoring, including De’Aaron Fox and Tyler Herro. I have a fourth play on Myles Turner.
Check out the best NBA prop bets for March 10.
NBA prop bets
Best bet: Durant over 32.5 points/rebounds (-112)
The Memphis Grizzlies host the Phoenix Suns in a game that has the highest total of the night.
Both teams are playing for the second consecutive day. Phoenix is last in defensive rating since Feb. 1 and desperate for wins, while the Grizzlies are No. 1 in the NBA in pace.
These teams met in February and combined for 299 points in an overtime win for the Grizzlies.
Scoring should come easy tonight, as it has for Durant in three previous meetings vs. Memphis this season:
- Feb. 25: 26 points
- Feb. 11: 34 points
- Dec. 31: 29 points
Durant has averaged 7.0 rebounds in those matchups and cleared this line every time.
Getting heavy minutes and taking a high volume of shots from the outside, Durant should have another big showing against Memphis.
Key stat: Durant is averaging exactly 33.0 points/rebounds on the season.
Best NBA picks
Fox over 20.5 points (-107): This line was typically five points higher before Fox’s trade to the San Antonio Spurs.
But since the blockbuster, he’s playing with a much weaker supporting cast. His volume and minutes have dropped, while his 3-point shot has cratered.
Fox is 1-7 against this line over his last eight games. Sunday’s loss to the Minnesota Timberwolves was the lone time he eclipsed this mark, using an efficient night to drop 22 points.
This matchup offers promise that Fox, who has three 25.0 PPG seasons under his belt, can do it again.
The Dallas Mavericks have allowed 120-plus points in five straight games.
Guards Damian Lillard (twice), Zach LaVine, Ja Morant, Desmond Bane and Devin Booker have all cleared this line vs. Dallas over that stretch.
Herro over 22.5 points (-122): Here’s another talented scoring guard who we can back on a lighter line tonight.
Herro is having a career year and assuming a much larger piece of the Miami Heat offence.
His scoring is up three PPG and he’s among the most dangerous 3-point shooters in the game.
The Heat get the Charlotte Hornets, who are No. 23 in the NBA in defensive rating since the all-star game.
- Herro dropped 27 on the Hornets the last time he faced them.
- He had a 22-point game against them earlier in the season.
- Herro combined for seven 3-pointers in the two games.
- The 25-year-old is 0-4 vs. this line in March but scored 21, 22 and 22 points in three of the games.
Turner prop pick
Turner over 16.5 points (-117): The Indiana Pacers’ big man has at least 16 points in eight of his last nine, topping this number six times.
He’s 0-2 vs. this line against the Chicago Bulls (15 and 16 points), but they still represent a plus matchup.
Chicago allows the third-most points to centres, per Betting Pros, and surrenders an NBA-high 120.6 points per game.
Turner has an improved outside shot, giving him more scoring upside each night. His outlook would be even better if Tyrese Haliburton sits. The star guard has missed back-to-back games and is questionable.
NBA prop picks made at 12:30 p.m. ET on 03/10/2025.
Chris joined NorthStar Gaming from Covers.com where he was a publishing editor and wrote betting content. Before that, he was the sports editor at VICE Canada, worked for theScore and covered the Blue Jays for MLB.com. In addition to filling out the lineup card each day for the editorial team, Chris writes frequently himself, primarily on the NBA and MLB.