Anthony Edwards and Bam Adebayo highlight Thursday’s top NBA prop picks.
The pregame narrative: I expect both to do damage on the offensive end and also have a play on Dallas Mavericks guard Spencer Dinwiddie.
Check out the best NBA prop bets for Jan. 9.
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Best bet: Adebayo over 17.5 points (-121)
I’ve been playing Adebayo props lately, and I see no reason to stop in a juicy matchup against the Utah Jazz.
The Jazz struggle to defend the paint, where Adebayo provides plenty of scoring, and are overall a dreadful defensive team:
- 30th in defensive rating
- 26th in points allowed/game
- 4th-most PPG allowed to centres
Adebayo has struggled offensively (16.2 PPG, his lowest total since 2019-20) but this line is light for me.
Miami’s big man has scored more lately, perhaps a result of positive regression and Jimmy Butler being sidelined.
Adebayo has cleared this line in four of his last five games.
Interestingly, the one time he didn’t came against Utah — a complete clunker that was his worst game of the season (four points, 0-of-6 from the field).
No signs point to a repeat of that performance for a player who should be motivated tonight.
Key stat: Adebayo is 8-7 against this line since Dec. 1.
Quick picks
Dinwiddie over 20.5 points/assists (-125): Dinwiddie has played 15 games without superstar Luka Doncic this season.
- He’s gotten 25+ minutes in 10 of those games, going 7-3 against this line (per StatMuse).
- Dinwiddie has logged 30+ minutes in four of his last six games (all without Doncic).
- One of those games was Dec. 28 against the Portland Trail Blazers, who get hammered by guards. Dinwiddie didn’t disappoint, dropping 17 points with four assists.
- In the Dallas Mavericks’ following game, he scored a season-high 30 and he’s coming off a 19-point effort.
Without Doncic (and Kyrie Irving), there’s scoring upside here. And a closer matchup that keeps Dinwiddie on the court is certainly a more plausible outcome sans the two stars.
Portland, on a back-to-back, is one of the worst teams in the NBA at defending guards.
The Blazers allow the most points to PGs and third-most to SGs, per Betting Pros.
Edwards is cooking
Edwards over 3.5 threes (-108): Edwards gets an Orlando Magic team that defends wings exceptionally well.
Orlando holds opponents to the fewest 3-pointers made and attempted per game in the NBA. And they have the No. 1 defensive rating in the Eastern Conference.
I can’t ignore Edwards’ recent form, though.
The Minnesota star recently aired out some frustrations to the media about having to distribute more amid a scoring slump for the underperforming Timberwolves.
He’s responded with a vengeance since then.
- Jan. 4 vs. Pistons: Edwards scored a career-high 53 points on 31 attempts. Nearly half of those shots were 3-pointers (15) and he drilled 10 of them.
- Jan. 6 vs. Clippers: Edwards followed with a 37-point performance on 14-of-29 shooting, going 6-of-13 from long range.
- Jan. 7 vs. Pelicans: He scored 32 in his most recent game, hitting 7-of-11 threes.
Edwards had only attempted double-digit threes twice in 15 games before this outburst.
It appears he’s back to the same ultra-aggressive mentality he had earlier in the season when he routinely chucked up 10-plus triples a game. Sign me up at this price for a 3.5 line any day.
Edwards is averaging 4.3 triples/game, third in the NBA.
Picks made at 12:50 p.m. ET on 01/09/2025.
Chris joined NorthStar Gaming from Covers.com where he was a publishing editor and wrote betting content. Before that, he was the sports editor at VICE Canada, worked for theScore and covered the Blue Jays for MLB.com. In addition to filling out the lineup card each day for the editorial team, Chris writes frequently himself, primarily on the NBA and MLB.