I’m dialling up four prop picks for the final night of the NBA’s first half.
The pregame narrative: Domantas Sabonis headlines the recommendations and I’m also backing Trey Murphy from the same matchup. Bam Adebayo and Walker Kessler round out the plays.
Check out how I’m betting on them in the best NBA prop bets for Feb. 13.
Best NBA prop bets
Best bet: Sabonis over 32.5 points/rebounds (-129)
For the second consecutive night, the Sacramento Kings’ stat-stuffing centre gets the New Orleans Pelicans.
Last night’s result was a 16-point, 15-rebound performance. Four days before that, he went off on them for 27 and 16.
Back in December, he dominated New Orleans with a 32-and-20 effort.
Sabonis is averaging 34.2 points/rebounds, the best mark of his career.
The Pelicans have been horrific guarding centres. Per Betting Pros, they surrender the most rebounds per game to the position and the fifth-most points.
Sabonis is 2-5 against this line in February, but that’s allowing us to buy in tonight at a discount.
I expect the all-star snub to make the most of this plus matchup versus the Pelicans, who have the second-worst defensive rating in the NBA.
Key stat: Sabonis leads the NBA in paint touches and the Pelicans allow the second-most points/game in the paint (per Team Rankings).
Quick picks
Murphy over 22.5 points (-121): Sticking with the Pelicans/Kings matchup, I’m riding New Orleans’ breakout star.
I also view this as a good buy-low spot.
Murphy is 0-3 versus this line in three matchups against the Kings, but I’m happy to overlook that. Here’s why:
- Murphy has averaged 25-plus points in back-to-back months.
- Sacramento has not been great at defending wings, ranking bottom 10 in points allowed to both shooting guards and small forwards.
- The 24-year-old is 9-6 against this line over his last 15 games.
- Murphy is top 20 in the NBA in PPG and top 10 in 3-pointers made since Jan. 1.
Murphy’s long-range stroke can hurt any team and the Kings are 29th in the NBA in opponent 3-point percentage.
Count on big production from the bigs
Adebayo over 17.5 points (-134): I played this last night at a 16.5 line and see no reason not to turn back to it.
Adebayo is scoring at his best clip of the season, averaging 23.0 points in six February games.
He has cleared this line in all of those contests and eight straight overall.
Jimmy Butler is out of the equation, leading to an uptick in volume for the Miami Heat centre. Adebayo is averaging 17.3 field goal attempts in February compared to 12.3 in January.
The Dallas Mavericks have been vulnerable against centres and are down multiple bigs for tonight’s contest. Adebayo dropped 20 on them in November.
Kessler to double-double (+112): Kessler isn’t the biggest name on the Utah Jazz but he might be the most productive.
Here’s why I like him tonight:
- 12 double-doubles in last 20 games
- 22 double-doubles in 42 games
- Feb. averages: 13.3 pts, 14.3 reb
He’s shooting 71.8% from the field thanks to his work in the high-percentage paint area.
On a per-game level in the paint, Kessler is top five in the NBA in touches and field goals made.
The 7-footer is seventh in the NBA in rebounding and is up to nearly 35 minutes a night in February.
Picks made at 1:44 p.m. ET on 02/13/2025.
Chris joined NorthStar Gaming from Covers.com where he was a publishing editor and wrote betting content. Before that, he was the sports editor at VICE Canada, worked for theScore and covered the Blue Jays for MLB.com. In addition to filling out the lineup card each day for the editorial team, Chris writes frequently himself, primarily on the NBA and MLB.