Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Anthony Edwards have my attention on Tuesday’s NBA prop market.
The pregame narrative: SGA has been a bit quieter than usual as a scorer in recent games, but he’s ratcheting up his assist numbers. Edwards, meanwhile, is shooting — and scoring — in bunches. In the final game of the night, Stephon Castle is my top fade candidate against the Los Angeles Clippers.
Check out the best NBA prop bets for April 8.
NBA prop bets
Best Bet: Castle under 1.5 threes (-118)
Castle is looking like the runaway winner in the NBA Rookie of the Year race, but it’s not because of his 3-point shooting.
- Castle has a 28.3 3PT% this season, which ranks 23rd out of 26 rookies (minimum 15 games played and 2.0 attempted 3s per game).
- With those same parameters (15 GP and 2.0 3PA), Castle ranks 291st out of 303 NBA players in 3PT%.
Castle is even colder from deep right now, and he’s in a matchup that won’t work to his advantage. So there are lots of reasons to fade the ex-UConn guard.
Over their past 15 games, the Clippers — Castle’s opponents — have allowed the fewest 3s per game (10.9) on a league-low 31.9 3PT%.
Castle is just 2-for-13 from deep against the Clips this season, hitting this under in two of three games.
He’s better off scoring from the inside while creating value as a passer and rebounder. Those are the traits that have him on the cusp of NBA ROY honours.
Key stat: Castle is shooting 24.4% from deep in his past 10 games, going under 1.5 threes in eight of those matchups.
Best NBA picks
Gilgeous-Alexander 8+ assists (+116): There’s a lot of juice on SGA over 6.5 assists (-152), so let’s bump up the risk a bit with this plus-money milestone.
Here’s my case for riding with the MVP favourite against the Los Angeles Lakers:
- Gilgeous-Alexander has 8+ assists in 7 of 10 games since March 16.
- He finished with exactly nine assists in both matchups against L.A. this season (including this past Sunday).
- Since March 1, SGA has averaged 12.8 potential assists per game, according to NBA.com.
And as a cherry on top, the Lakers allow the third-most assists to opposing point guards (9.7), per Betting Pros.
Edwards over 26.5 points (-127): I wouldn’t want to face Edwards right now with the type of run he’s on.
Check out his stats in the past 12 games:
- 28.6 PPG
- 20+ points in 10 of 12
- 27+ points in 8 of 12
His 35.1 3PT% in that span isn’t particularly notable — but his 10.9 attempted 3s per game are.
Given that he’s taking about 20 shots per night right now, and about half of them are coming beyond the arc, Edwards has an opportunity baseline that any prop bettor can appreciate.
I hope to see that 3-point volume remain high against the Milwaukee Bucks, who allow the eighth-most attempted 3s per game (39.1).
Edwards had 28 points on 10-of-33 shooting (4-of-17 from 3-point range) when he faced Milwaukee in February.
NBA prop picks made at 2:14 p.m. ET on 04/09/2025.
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Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.