NBA opening night arrives Tuesday with a doubleheader featuring four marquee franchises — and plenty of star players.
The latest: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and the defending champion Oklahoma City Thunder open their season at home against Kevin Durant and the Houston Rockets. Later on, look for Austin Reaves to take on a bigger role in the absence of LeBron James.
Check out the best NBA prop bets for opening night on Oct. 21, featuring picks on SGA, Reaves and Alperen Sengun.
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NBA prop bets
Best bet: Sengun under 6.5 assists (-134)
Facing what is likely the best defence in the NBA, Sengun has no business seeing an assist line this high.
The Oklahoma City Thunder had the league’s best defensive rating last year (106.6) while ranking No. 1 in steals (10.3/game) and No. 2 in blocks (5.7/game).
The defending champs are not a fun bunch to square up against.
Sengun could be tasked with heightened responsibilities as a passer this year, mind you. Fred VanVleet (knee) is out for the season, and last year, FVV was the only Houston player who outpaced Sengun in assists per game.
But Sengun’s 4.9 APG average in 2024-25 fell comfortably below what this line is asking of him. And in a daunting matchup, I just don’t see him getting it done.
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Including the playoffs, Sengun went under this assist total in 66 of 83 games last season.
Key stat: Dating back to February 2024, this under is 5-1 when Sengun faces the Thunder. He averaged 4.8 rebounds in those games.
Best NBA picks
Gilgeous-Alexander over 31.5 points (-114): Expect to see a lot of points props sitting around this number — and above — this season for Gilgeous-Alexander.
- The reigning NBA scoring champ averaged 32.7 PPG last season in 76 games, marking his third consecutive year scoring 30+ points on a nightly basis.
- SGA led the league in field goal attempts per game and made free throws.
- Including the playoffs, SGA went 50-49 vs. this scoring prop last year.
The Houston Rockets ranked fifth in defensive rating last year, so this isn’t a plus matchup. But SGA is as matchup-proof as any scorer these days.
Over the two previous seasons, Gilgeous-Alexander averaged 33.3 PPG vs. the Rockets and cashed this bet in five of eight meetings.
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Reaves over 10.5 rebounds/assists (-106): Reaves averaged 10.3 rebounds/assists last season, which makes this line seem pretty fair from the outset.
But with LeBron (lower back) sidelined for the Lakers, the over on Reaves’ RA prop is a smash play for me.
- In nine games without LeBron last season, Reaves averaged 6.6 rebounds and 8.3 assists (14.9 RA).
- Once Luka Doncic joined the squad in March, Reaves went 5-1 vs. this RA prop in six non-LeBron games (finishing with exactly 10 RA in the one miss).
Regardless of personnel, Reaves is 3-2 vs. this prop in his past five matchups against the Golden State Warriors, which includes a 26-10-10 stat line on Christmas Day last season.
LeBron’s absence should allow Reaves to be more active as a passer and rebounder, as he’s demonstrated in the past.
NBA prop picks made at 1:56 p.m. ET on 10/20/2025.
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Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.