Friday night serves up an NBA playoff doubleheader, and I’ve got three prop bets to cover the action.
The pregame narrative: First up, the Indiana Pacers carry a 2-0 lead into their home arena against the top-seeded Cleveland Cavaliers — and the spread for Game 3 is pretty tight. Later on, the Oklahoma City Thunder look to build off a dominant Game 2 victory and will be road favourites against the Denver Nuggets.
I’ve got NBA prop bets on Bennedict Mathurin, Lu Dort and Nikola Jokic for Friday, May 9.
NBA prop bets
Best Bet: Mathurin over 11.5 points (-118)
The Pacers’ depth can make it difficult to win in the prop market. Sometimes it’s tough to tell who the star(s) will be in any particular game.
Mathurin isn’t a star, but he’s filled a consistent enough role to win me over.
- Through two games this series, his 23.5% usage rate is the highest among Pacers players.
- Mathurin made 49 starts during the regular season, but he seems to be locked into a bench role now. No problem. He’s averaging 14.0 PPG in 29 games off the bench this year (regular season and playoffs).
The Montreal native scored 19 points last time out. He’s had 10 field-goal attempts and 20 minutes of action in both games of this series.
If that kind of volume persists, this line is only going to go up.
The third-year wing averaged 16.8 PPG this season, clearing this total in 52 of 72 games. That’s not a completely fair way of looking at things since he’s no longer a starter, but it shows what he’s capable of.
And even in a slightly reduced role, Mathurin has proven his value for the Pacers.
Key stat: Mathurin has gone over 11.5 points in 28 of 39 home games this season, including two of three in the postseason.
Best NBA picks
Jokic 2+ threes (-122): If you wanted to describe Jokic, the term “elite 3-point shooter” wouldn’t be one of the first things that came to mind.
But in small doses, that’s what he’s been this season. And the shot volume is just enough that I’m content backing him to can multiple 3s at a price like this.
- Jokic has 2+ threes in 6 of 9 playoff games — and in 47 of 79 games (59.5%) for the year.
- In the postseason, he’s averaging 2.0 makes on 4.6 attempts (43.9 3PT%).
Jokic struggled mightily in Game 2, shooting 6-of-16 from the floor. But he did cash this prop on 2-of-4 shooting from deep and will now try to cash this milestone for a third straight game.
During the regular season, Jokic averaged 2.2 threes on 42.7% shooting in 36 home games.
Dort 10+ points (-136): Dort has fired nine 3-point attempts in both games so far this series. That has my attention.
All 18 of those triples came as either “open” (4-to-6 feet of separation) or “wide open” (6 or more feet of separation), according to NBA.com’s shot tracking data.
That means OKC is creating plenty of quality looks for Dort, and he’s letting it fly.
The Montreal native has 26 points against the Nuggets in the conference semis, cashing this bet in both games. He averaged 10.1 PPG during the regular season.
NBA prop picks made at 2:55 p.m. ET on 05/08/2025.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.