Three big men have my attention for Tuesday’s NBA playoff action.
The pregame narrative: Evan Mobley and the Cleveland Cavaliers try to keep their season alive at home vs. the Indiana Pacers. Later on, the Oklahoma City Thunder and Denver Nuggets battle for the upper hand out West.
Check out my NBA prop bets for Monday, May 13, which include predictions on Mobley, Myles Turner and Nikola Jokic.
NBA prop bets
Best Bet: Mobley over 28.5 points/rebounds (-122)
I made this wager in Game 4, and it fell flat on its face with Mobley recording 10 points and five rebounds in 27 minutes of action.
The Pacers grabbed the early advantage and never looked back after leading by 41 points at halftime.
This resulted in a negative game script for most players, so I’ll choose to have a short memory and jump right back in.
Mobley missed Game 2 of this series, but look how he performed in Games 1 and 3:
- 19.0 points/game
- 11.5 rebounds/game
- 15-for-25 from the field (60%)
Mobley broke out on offence this season and is now one of the best two-way players in basketball. He averaged 19.0 points and 12.5 rebounds in his two regular-season meetings with Indiana.
Cleveland needs a win to keep its season alive, and another dominant performance by Mobley should be expected in this matchup.
Key stat: The Pacers allowed the seventh-most points (23.93) and second-most rebounds (11.28) to power forwards in the regular season, per Fantasy Pros.
Best NBA picks
Turner over 6.5 rebounds (-130): On the other side, Turner has been tasked with containing two bruisers down low.
While Mobley provides a threat inside, so does Jarrett Allen, who’s a double-double threat on any night.
That’s led to 15.3 potential rebounds per game for Turner this series. That’s more than his average of 13.6 in the regular season.
Overall, Turner is 3-1 against this line while grabbing 7.3 boards a night.
Additionally, the big man has totalled more rebounds when playing in Cleveland.
- Game 1 @ Cleveland: 11 rebounds
- Game 2 @ Cleveland: 8 rebounds
- Game 3 @ Indiana: 3 rebounds
- Game 4 @ Indiana: 7 rebounds
Expect a similar performance on the road in Game 5.
Jokic under 28.5 points (-130): Fading Jokic as a scorer this season hasn’t been as safe as in years past.
The Serbian big man averaged a career-high in points (29.6) while shooting 57.6% from the field.
He looked on track to dominate this series as well, but OKC figured something out and is now containing the three-time MVP.
- Game 1: 42 points (15-for-29)
- Game 2: 17 points (6-for-16)
- Game 3: 20 points (8-for-25)
- Game 4: 27 points (7-for-22)
It’s uncharacteristic for Jokic to have three bad shooting performances in a row, but the Thunder have a trio of defensively sound bigs and led the NBA with a 106.6 defensive rating in the regular season.
I would be hesitant to fade Jokic if he were choosing to shoot less, but his inability to score 28-plus on a high volume of shots proves that OKC’s strategy is working.
The Thunder’s defensive rating has improved to 100.2 in the playoffs.
NBA prop picks made at 3:55 p.m. ET on 05/12/2025.
Spencer is a true sports junkie. A graduate of the Sports Journalism program at Centennial College, he first joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2023. He is now a contributing writer. He loves finding the edge to bet on in all sports but has a deep passion for the NBA and UFC. Previous stops include Sportsnet.