Giannis Antetokounmpo’s Milwaukee Bucks are on the brink of elimination — but I expect the superstar to go down swinging.
The pregame narrative: Giannis is one of my three NBA prop targets on Tuesday night, alongside Orlando’s Franz Wagner and Detroit’s Tim Hardaway Jr. I think all three players have a solid opportunity to shine in their respective playoff matchups.
Check out the best NBA prop bets for first-round playoff action on April 29.
NBA prop bets
Best Bet: Wagner over 22.5 points (-120)
The Orlando Magic don’t have a very imaginative offence. It’s a lot of isolation action, with either Wagner or Paolo Banchero heaving the ball toward the rim as the shot clock winds down.
Of the 334 shot attempts Orlando has had this series, 202 of them (60.5%) have come from the Wagner/Banchero duo.
Banchero is the 1A to Wagner’s 1B, but they both have exceptionally high floors in terms of shot volume. Wagner has attempted 20-plus shots in all four first-round games.
More importantly, he has cashed this bet every time.
The 3-point shooting from Wagner has been poor (7-of-33, 21.2%), but unfortunately that’s not too far off the expectation.
His 29.5 3PT% this season was the worst in the NBA among players who attempted 4.5 threes or more per game.
What I’m fixated on is Wagner’s shot volume, which has remained high in spite of the inefficiency. If he’s in the realm of 20-plus field-goal attempts (and five or more attempted 3s), another over will be in play.
Key stat: Wagner is 5-0 against this prop in matchups against Boston this month, averaging 25.4 PPG in those games.
Best NBA picks
Giannis over 45.5 points/rebounds (-122): The Pacers haven’t done a good job of containing Giannis, but it really hasn’t mattered. They’re up 3-1 in the first-round series and will likely close things out tonight.
I do expect Giannis to go out with a bang, though, as he’s the only player who gives the Bucks any hope of winning.
- Through four games, the Greek Freak is averaging 33.8 points and 14.3 rebounds.
- He has 46 more points and 26 more rebounds than any other player in the series.
Giannis had 28 points on uncharacteristically inefficient shooting in Game 4 (9-for-20).
But he’s still 3-1 against this prop in this series, and he’s shooting 63.5% in eight matchups against the Pacers this season.
Hardaway over 2.5 threes (-115): Hardaway’s 3-point shooting volume was down this year, as he averaged fewer than 6.0 attempts for the first time since the 2016-17 season.
But he’s ratcheted the volume back up in the playoffs, and coming off two huge games beyond the arc, I think this is a great number to back him at.
In Game 3, Hardaway shot 7-for-12 from 3-point range. He followed that up with a 4-for-13 showing in Game 4.
All told, Hardaway is 3-1 against this prop against the Knicks in the first round, averaging 9.8 attempted 3s per game. I’ll take that volume every day.
NBA prop picks made at 9:40 a.m. ET on 04/29/2025.
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Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.