Best NBA playoff prop bets April 23: Pritchard should capitalize with Tatum’s injury, Sengun can feast vs. Golden State

NBA prop bets

With three NBA playoff games on tap for Wednesday night, I’ve got three prop bets worth checking out.

The pregame narrative: Payton Pritchard is a sharpshooter from 3-point range, and I love where his 3s line is at tonight, especially in light of Jayson Tatum’s status. Alperen Sengun and Davion Mitchell both look to build off strong Game 1 performances.

Check out the best NBA prop bets for first-round playoff action on April 23.

NBA prop bets

Best Bet: Pritchard over 2.5 threes (-114)

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With Tatum (wrist) listed as doubtful for tonight, I knew I’d want to look at 3s props for other Celtics players to see who can fill the void.

Why not roll with the newly minted NBA Sixth Man of the Year, whose specialty is 3-point shooting?

  • Pritchard shot 40.7% from deep this season, averaging 3.2 makes per game.
  • Among 64 players who attempted at least 6.0 threes per game, his 40.7 3PT% ranked seventh.
  • Pritchard went 4-for-6 from beyond the arc in Game 1 in 25 minutes off the bench.

Tatum averaged 10.1 attempted 3s per game this year, which was the fifth-most in the NBA. Naturally, his absence should create more opportunities for other shooters.

Since the start of last season, Pritchard is 13-5 against this prop when playing without Tatum. The fifth-year guard averaged 3.8 makes on 42.6 3PT% in those games.

Key stat: Pritchard has gone over 2.5 threes in 47 of 81 games this year (58.0%).

Best NBA picks

Sengun over 31.5 points/rebounds (-122): If the Warriors are going to commit to playing small, Houston should give Sengun every opportunity to capitalize around the rim.

In Game 1, Golden State deployed Draymond Green (6-foot-6) at centre. He’s a strong and scrappy defensive presence, but he gives up five inches of height to Sengun.

Unsurprisingly, the Warriors didn’t have much of an answer for the Rockets’ Turkish big man.

  • Sengun scored 26 of Houston’s 85 points (11-of-18 shooting) and added nine rebounds.
  • He has cashed this bet in 3 of his past 4 against Golden State.

The Warriors allowed the third-most rebounds to opposing centres this year, per Betting Pros.

Mitchell over 17.5 points/assists (-122): Mitchell is playing some seriously productive basketball right now, and this is a great way to buy in.

In his final 11 games of the regular season, Mitchell went 8-3 against this line while averaging 12.2 points and 6.8 assists (19.0 PA).

In the postseason, his numbers have held up as the Heat continue to give him opportunities:

  • April 16 (at Chicago): 15 pts, 9 ast
  • April 18 (at Atlanta): 16 pts, 5 ast
  • April 20 (at Cleveland): 18 pts, 9 ast

Miami is probably going to be eliminated in four or five games. But Mitchell’s rise is a storyline the team can be excited about heading into the offseason.

NBA prop picks made at 9:45 a.m. ET on 04/23/2025.

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Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.