Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is the odds-on favourite to win NBA Finals MVP. But his Oklahoma City Thunder will have to win Game 7 in order for that to happen.
The latest: OKC was shut down by the Indiana Pacers in Game 6, forcing this series into a winner-take-all matchup on Sunday night. Gilgeous-Alexander is coming off his worst game, but he can wipe that away with a solid showing in the finale.
Check out the latest odds to win NBA Finals MVP ahead of Game 7 on Sunday, June 22.
NBA Finals MVP odds
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The favourite: Gilgeous-Alexander (-335)
On a team that rolls with a deep rotation and plays unselfishly, Gilgeous-Alexander is still very clearly the ring leader.
- SGA is leading the Thunder in points (30.5) and assists (4.5), which chipping in 4.5 rebounds and 2.0 steals per game in the Finals.
- Game 6 of the Finals wasn’t pretty for anyone on OKC’s side, Gilgeous-Alexander included. He was the game’s leading scorer, but with only 21 points, and he committed eight turnovers.
- SGA was at his most clutch in the final 2:58 of Game 4, when he scored 11 points to lift OKC to victory. That is the most points by any player in the final three minutes of a Finals win in at least 50 years, according to ESPN Research.
- He’s hit the 30-point, five-assist threshold in 12 of those 22 games. In a single NBA postseason, that’s the most games with those stats that any player has ever had (LeBron James and Michael Jordan both had 11 such games apiece in previous postseasons).
From 1970 onward, no Finals MVP recipient has come from the losing team. Interestingly enough, SGA’s odds to win Finals MVP are even shorter than OKC’s title odds (-286).
MVP notes
- A non-SGA Finals MVP winner on the Thunder’s side might feel impossible … but it’s not. Jalen Williams’ odds tightened from +3,000 to +700 after a series-high 40 points in Game 5. They now sit at +900, and a particularly heroic final game could get it down. Williams dropped 40 points in Game 5, so he’s capable of something special.
- Siakam (+350) is the clear frontrunner among Pacers players, especially with Tyrese Haliburton (calf) seemingly limited due to injury. The Pacers spread the love, so Siakam’s numbers aren’t eye-popping, but he does lead the squad in scoring (19.8 PPG) and rebounding (8.3 RPG) this series.
- Haliburton (+1,300) would have a narrative case on his side, as he battles through what is typically a multi-week calf injury. He’s also made a bunch of clutch shots this postseason, including the game-winner in Game 1. Haliburton leads the Pacers in with 6.8 APG, and he’s expected to gut through Game 7 with the title at stake.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.