It’s a true David vs. Goliath matchup between Lorenzo Musetti and Carlos Alcaraz in the Monte-Carlos Masters final.
The pregame narrative: Musetti has slayed some of tennis’ top talents en route to his first Masters 1000 final. The most talented competitor lies ahead with the Spanish sensation Alcaraz waiting. I’m betting on the favourite to win comfortably in Sunday’s showdown.
Check out my Musetti vs. Alcaraz Monte-Carlo Masters best bet and the odds for April 13.
Musetti vs. Alacaraz best bet
Best Bet: Alcaraz -1.5 sets (-134)
Musetti’s run to the Monte-Carlo Masters final deserves plenty of recognition.
He has knocked off a pair of top-10 competitors to reach his maiden Masters 1000 final.
- 1-6, 6-3, 6-4 victory over Stefanos Tsitsipas
- 1-6, 6-4, 7-6 victory over Alex de Minaur
Not only did Musetti beat two of the sport’s best players, but he beat them after getting thoroughly overmatched in the first set of each contest.
The Tsitsipas win is especially impressive considering the history that goes into their head-to-head. Tsitsipas was a perfect 5-0 against Muesetti before the latter shocked the former in comeback fashion.
So if Musetti has overcome so much already, why am I betting on him to fall short in the final?
Firstly, Alcaraz is on a different level than anybody Musetti has disposed of on his run.
Alcaraz is an overwhelming 145-35 lifetime on clay, including a 46-7 record across the last three years.
His return game on the surface is elite, as he boasts the second-highest serve rating (179.7) on clay per ATPTour.com. His return skills are especially important on clay as the ball moves much slower, which helps Alcaraz as someone who possesses elite speed.
Musetti is a solid clay court player in his own right (125-66 career record), but I expect the Italian to fall short against Alcaraz.
Key stat: Alcaraz is 4-1 lifetime against Musetti, winning each of their last two matches in straight sets.
Picks made at 3:19 p.m. ET on 04/12/2025.
Stevie’s an avid NFL, NHL, and tennis bettor who has no problem talking himself into the underdog. His previous stops include Yahoo! Sports Canada and Toronto Metropolitan University, where he received a degree in Sport Media.