We’re in for a light Monday of MLB action but there are still several prop picks I like.
The pregame narrative: Charlie Morton is the headliner of the slate, and I have additional plays on Freddie Freeman, Carlos Rodon and Elly De La Cruz.
Check out the best MLB prop bets for Sept. 9.
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Best bet: Morton over 5.5 Ks (-113)
This line feels light. I particularly like it because Morton has been piling up Ks and the Cincinnati Reds are one of the most strikeout-prone teams in the majors.
Let’s start with Morton, whose K rate has hit a nine-year low but is still comfortably above league average.
Morton has struck out 24.5% of the batters he’s faced, a number helped by his 28% K rate since August 1. The league average K rate for starting pitchers this season, per FanGraphs, is 21.9%.
Morton, since the start of August:
- Aug. 1 vs. Marlins: 6 Ks
- Aug. 8 vs. Brewers: 3 Ks
- Aug. 13 @ Giants: 8 Ks
- Aug. 18 @ Angels: 7 Ks
- Aug. 24 vs. Nationals: 6 Ks
- Aug. 29 @ Phillies: 7 Ks
- Sept. 4 vs. Rockies: 8 Ks
He’s 6-1 against this line over that stretch heading into tonight’s start versus the Reds, who have the seventh-highest K rate in MLB.
Against righties, they strike out at the fourth-highest clip and ninth-highest over the last 30 days. Cincinnati has been a good team to target on K props all season.
Key stat: Morton has six-plus Ks in 15 of 26 starts.
Quick picks
Freeman over 1.5 total bases (+100): Getting Freeman at even money versus a righty, and one that has been clobbered all season? Sign me up.
Freeman punishes right-handers and his Los Angeles Dodgers see Kyle Hendricks of the Chicago Cubs tonight.
Hendricks has a 6.60 ERA, 1.51 WHIP and he doesn’t strike out many batters. Left-handed hitters are batting .319 off him with a .921 OPS.
Freeman is hitting .305 with a .932 OPS against RHPs. No need to overthink this one.
Rodon under 6.5 Ks (+105): The New York Yankees left-hander was dominant in his last start: Six innings of one-hit, one-run ball with 11 strikeouts versus the Texas Rangers.
But he was lit up in two of three starts before that. And that’s really a tale of how his season has gone. There’s been enough to like but he’s been blown up plenty.
The strikeouts have been there, especially of late (32.6 K% post-ASG). But Rodon has a 5.06 ERA and 4.20 FIP (the same number as his season-long ERA) since the start of June.
Tonight, he faces a dangerous Kansas City Royals offence that doesn’t strike out often. The game is also at Kauffman Stadium, which has been one of MLB’s best hitter’s parks.
Kansas City has the second-lowest K rate versus lefties and the second-lowest in MLB since the All-Star Game.
De La Cruz over 1.5 total bases (+145): This number is juicy.
De La Cruz is slumping and is streaky, but he does his damage against righties (.283/.360/.535 with 17 of his 23 homers).
I endorsed Morton on his K prop, but he isn’t bulletproof.
The veteran righty’s xSLG% is at its highest mark since 2015 (as far back as Baseball Savant data goes) and his HR/FB rate is the highest since 2010.
De La Cruz has hit the over on 1.5 total bases in 44% of his starts, per Team Rankings, creating some value here at +145.
Picks made at 1:07 p.m. ET on 09/09/2024.
Chris joined NorthStar Gaming from Covers.com where he was a publishing editor and wrote betting content. Before that, he was the sports editor at VICE Canada, worked for theScore and covered the Blue Jays for MLB.com. In addition to filling out the lineup card each day for the editorial team, Chris writes frequently himself, primarily on the NBA and MLB.