It’s a Wednesday featuring all-day baseball and I have multiple MLB prop picks for the late window.
The pregame narrative: I’m targeting two starters from the same matchup — Blake Snell and Colin Rea — and backing Los Angeles Dodgers star Mookie Betts.
Check out the best MLB prop bets for Sept. 11.
MLB prop bets
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Best bet: Snell over 17.5 outs (-113)
This isn’t a price we’ve been able to get Snell at in his recent outings thanks to arguably the most dominant stretch of any starting pitcher this season.
From the middle of July to mid-August, the lefty posted a 1.14 ERA, 0.68 WHIP and 39.6% strikeout rate over seven starts.
Snell threw a no-hitter in one of those games, had a one-hitter in another and a pair of two-hit games. He was as unhittable as it gets.
Now he enters tonight coming off a one-inning performance, but that doesn’t bother me, especially since the ultra-abbreviated start wasn’t injury-related.
The 2023 Cy Young winner needed 42 pitches to get out of the first inning and that early strain was enough for the San Francisco Giants to turn to their bullpen and not push Snell any further.
Frustrating, but entirely reasonable. On Wednesday, I expect a huge bounce back from the southpaw against a Milwaukee Brewers club that has been a below-average offence over the last month.
Key stat: Before his last start, Snell had cleared this line in eight of his previous nine outings.
Quick picks
Rea over 4.5 Ks (-118): Rea isn’t a huge strikeout arm but this line isn’t asking for a ton.
And if there was ever a time to back him on a 4.5 line, tonight’s start is it.
The Giants have the highest K rate in the majors over the last 30 days. Everyone in their projected lineup tonight, via Rotowire, has a league-average K rate or higher.
Rea has notched five-plus strikeouts in seven of his last nine starts and has a 24.7% K rate in the second half.
Betts over 1.5 total bases (-108): The Dodgers No. 2 hitter is on fire and comes at a price that can be stomached.
This opened as a plus-money play when I jumped on it, but -108 is more than reasonable if you weren’t able to get to it earlier.
Betts is hitting a blistering .406/.472/.844 in September with as many home runs as strikeouts (three).
He’ll start tonight facing Chicago Cubs lefty Jordan Wicks, who has four Ks in two starts since returning from a two-month-plus absence.
The Dodgers are facing a surprise sweep at home and I expect their offence to come out clicking tonight.
Betts is 9-6 vs. this line over his last 15 games.
Picks made at 2:44 p.m. ET on 09/11/2024.
Chris joined NorthStar Gaming from Covers.com where he was a publishing editor and wrote betting content. Before that, he was the sports editor at VICE Canada, worked for theScore and covered the Blue Jays for MLB.com. In addition to filling out the lineup card each day for the editorial team, Chris writes frequently himself, primarily on the NBA and MLB.