It’s a light Thursday MLB slate and I’m focusing my attention on the later games.
The pregame narrative: Gunnar Henderson has excellent value in a matchup versus the Boston Red Sox, and I’m tailing Cody Bradford in a difficult assignment versus the Minnesota Twins.
Check out how I’m backing them in the top MLB prop bets for August 15.
MLB prop bets
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Best bet: Henderson over 1.5 bases (+135)
Red Sox starter Nick Pivetta is flirting with an elite 30% K rate for the second consecutive season but he’s still prone to blow-ups due to his struggles with the long ball.
Pivetta has allowed multiple homers in three straight outings and has the second-highest HR/9 rate among pitchers who have thrown 90-plus innings.
He faces MLB’s best home run-hitting team tonight in the Baltimore Orioles, who are second in wRC+ and fifth in batting average. This team can hit and is led by its all-star shortstop.
Henderson has 30 homers and a .925 OPS and provides most of his power against righties.
He’s hit 23 of his homers versus RHPs, accompanying a .575 slugging mark.
The 23-year-old has five multi-hit contests in 12 games this month. His strong average/power combination makes this play especially valuable.
Key stat: Henderson has topped this line at the eighth-most frequent rate in MLB, per Team Rankings.
Quick pick
Bradford over 4.5 Ks (-105): The Texas Rangers left-hander was exceptional in his last outing. He held the New York Yankees to one run and struck out seven over five innings.
It was Bradford’s third start since April and his 92 pitches were easily the most he’s thrown since then. That’s an encouraging sign ahead of tonight.
The 26-year-old began the season with three great starts before a rib/back injury sidelined him for over three months.
With the caveat that he has a limited body of work this season, Bradford’s results have been sparkling: a 26.1 K%, 3.4 BB%, 3.24 FIP.
Those strikeout/walk rates are superb. For context: Only six qualified starters have a better K-BB% than Bradford’s 22.7% mark.
Picks made at 1:20 p.m. ET on 08/15/2024.
Chris joined NorthStar Gaming from Covers.com where he was a publishing editor and wrote betting content. Before that, he was the sports editor at VICE Canada, worked for theScore and covered the Blue Jays for MLB.com. In addition to filling out the lineup card each day for the editorial team, Chris writes frequently himself, primarily on the NBA and MLB.