Wednesday features all-day baseball action, leading to four MLB prop recommendations.
The pregame narrative: I have picks on hitters Brendan Rodgers, Freddie Freeman and Bryan Reynolds, as well as starter Kyle Gibson.
Check out how I’m backing them in the top MLB prop bets for August 14.
MLB prop bets
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Best bet: Rodgers over 1.5 total bases (+105)
Arizona Diamondbacks starter Jordan Montgomery has been clobbered at home and by right-handers this season.
Rodgers is raking against southpaws and is on a heater. At plus money, I’m happy to lean into these trends.
It’s hard to call Montgomery the worst deal of the offseason when he only signed for one year, but he has been a colossal disappointment.
One of the anchors of the Texas Rangers’ World Series title, Montgomery has a 6.37 ERA (8.14 at home) and the lowest K/9 rate of his career.
Righties have obliterated him to the tune of a .326/.382/.530 slash line. He has surrendered all 10 of his homers to them.
Rodgers’ modest stats benefit, like most teammates, from playing his home games at Coors Field. But he’s put up a .319/.379/.500 line (134 wRC+) versus lefties.
And he enters on a tear. The Colorado Rockies second baseman is hitting .345/.396/.540 since the All-Star Game, aided by a 211 wRC+ in August.
Key stat: Rodgers’ .429 average this month trails only Aaron Judge.
Quick picks
Freeman over 0.5 RBI (+145): I recommended this play yesterday, unsuccessfully, but am going back to it.
The same logic applies: Freeman, who demolishes righties, sees a subpar arm (the Milwaukee Brewers’ Frankie Montas, 5.10 ERA) and hits behind two of the game’s best in Shohei Ohtani and Mookie Betts.
Betts has multi-hit games in both contests since returning from a broken hand. Ohtani has a 1.104 OPS versus right-handers, and a .407 average and five homers in 27 career at-bats versus Montas.
Freeman, meanwhile, is hitting .311/.417/.530 against RHPs, with an OPS nearly .200 points greater than his mark against southpaws.
Gibson over 4.5 Ks (-141): The Cincinnati Reds have been one of the most strikeout-prone teams all season.
And while the St. Louis Cardinals’ Gibson isn’t a huge swing-and-miss arm, he has been hitting this modest total consistently and generally eats innings.
Gibson is pitching in an unfriendly environment at Great American Ball Park but gets a Reds team with the fourth-highest K rate versus righties.
The Cardinals starter is 7-3 vs. a 4.5 line over his last 10 starts. He went under this number in three of his first four outings of the year but has cleared it in 12 of his last 18.
Reynolds over 1.5 total bases (+125): I love this value. The Pittsburgh Pirates outfielder sees former teammate and San Diego Padres starter Martin Perez today.
Perez is a soft-tossing lefty who doesn’t punch out many batters. He’s had below-average K numbers his entire career, leading to plenty of balls in play and often sky-high ERAs.
This season, he’s sporting a 4.78 ERA and 4.92 FIP. Righties are doing a lot of the damage: .293/.361/.503 line with 13 homers (Perez has given up three to LHBs).
Reynolds hit .330 in June, then .325 in July and is at .319 in August. He has an .831 OPS in 11 games this month, clearing this line six times.
Picks made at 11:43 a.m. ET on 08/14/2024.
Chris joined NorthStar Gaming from Covers.com where he was a publishing editor and wrote betting content. Before that, he was the sports editor at VICE Canada, worked for theScore and covered the Blue Jays for MLB.com. In addition to filling out the lineup card each day for the editorial team, Chris writes frequently himself, primarily on the NBA and MLB.