A pair of hitters and a pitcher are at the centre of Saturday’s MLB prop bets.
The pregame narrative: Jonathan Aranda and Gavin Lux are enjoying solid starts to their campaigns. Both are excellent choices to cash the over on their bases props. Thirdly, I’m taking the over on Grant Holmes‘ strikeouts prop.
Check out the best MLB prop bets for April 26.
MLB prop bets
Best Bet: Aranda over 1.5 bases (+185)
Aranda’s ability to hit for average and power makes him a solid choice to clear this prop on most nights.
The Tampa Bay Rays infielder is dominating to begin 2025. Aranda is batting an impressive .311 and isn’t just relying on weak contact to reach base.
- 8 doubles (t-10th in MLB)
- 4 home runs (t-51st)
- .581 SLG (9th)
Overall, his 12 extra-base hits this season are tied for 15th in the majors. Aranda’s knack for swatting extra-base hits makes him a threat to cash this wager in one plate appearance.
Additionally, a glance at his Baseball Savant pages shows that this success is no fluke. Check out Aranda’s percentile rankings in some key batted-ball metrics:
- 98th percentile xSLG (.645)
- 96th percentile average exit velocity (94.8 mph)
- 99th percentile hard hit rate (61.4%)
- 90th percentile barrel rate (17.5%)
The reason why his outlook is especially appealing tonight is the pitcher he’ll be facing. The Rays battle Dylan Cease and the San Diego Padres, and the righty has been dreadful to start the campaign.
Cease has a 6.04 ERA and is ceding a .289 batting average to opposing hitters.
Bet on Aranda to take advantage in a plus matchup.
Key stat: Aranda’s 43 total bases are tied for 41st across MLB.
Best MLB picks
Lux over 1.5 bases (+116): Lux is absolutely hitting the cover off the ball heading into this contest.
Here are Lux’s numbers over his last nine games:
- .484 BA
- .645 SLG
- 20 bases
Lux isn’t just a guy on a heater, either; he looks like a player who’s setting the stage for a breakout campaign. The Cincinnati Reds utility man is batting .316 in 2025.
There has never been much power in Lux’s profile, but the hope is he can do repeated damage against a pitcher he’s fared well against in the past.
Lux and the Reds battle the Colorado Rockies with Antonio Senzatela getting the ball. The Reds infielder is a strong 8-for-20 against Senzatela in his career.
Playing at the hitter-friendly Coors Field tonight won’t hurt his chances, either.
Holmes over 4.5 strikeouts (+116): This is a pretty fair line for a pitcher playing as well as Holmes.
The Atlanta Braves starter has been nearly unhittable, limiting opposing batters to a puny .169 batting average this season.
He’s also posted pretty solid strikeout numbers. Holmes has totalled 17 Ks across his last three starts, topping this number twice.
He battles an Arizona Diamondbacks lineup that does have the third-lowest strikeout rate in the majors (18.9%), but his stuff can still play against them.
Holmes’ best out pitch is his slider, which generates a 35.8% whiff rate. Arizona is right around league average in whiff rate against sliders (32.6%, 16th in MLB).
MLB prop picks made at 12:49 p.m. ET on 04/26/2025.
Stevie’s an avid NFL, NHL, and tennis bettor who has no problem talking himself into the underdog. His previous stops include Yahoo! Sports Canada and Toronto Metropolitan University, where he received a degree in Sport Media.