A play on southpaw Robbie Ray is my top MLB prop pick recommendation on Wednesday.
Today’s MLB props narrative: Ray pitches at Coors Field, but I see value on a light line that he’s done well against this season. I’m also backing a pair of hitters who have solid matchups tonight.
Check out my favourite MLB prop bets for Sept. 3, featuring predictions on Ian Happ and Yordan Alvarez.
MLB prop bets
Best bet: Ray over 15.5 outs (-130)
The left-hander is having his worst month of the season in terms of ERA, and his K rate has plummeted in the second half.
Add in an unforgiving venue, and tonight’s assignment is not the easiest one he’s had this season.
That said, Ray has generally beaten this line, and he’ll attempt to do it against one of the sport’s weakest offences.
- Ray has failed to clear 15.5 outs in his last two starts. But he was 9-1 against this number in his 10 outings before that.
- The Colorado Rockies’ offence has been 25% below league average over the last 30 days, ranking second-last in the majors in wRC+.
- On the season, they’re dead last in wRC+ and second from the bottom in K rate and on-base percentage.
Coors Field presents its challenges, but the Rockies are an excellent matchup for nearly any pitcher.
Ray is having a strong year, sporting the second-lowest HR/9 rate of his career, an above-average K rate and a 3.18 ERA.
While a blowup at Coors is always a possibility, Ray could just as easily dominate the Rockies. This line just calls for him to be competent.
Key stat: Ray is 20-8 vs. this line in 2025.
Best MLB picks
Happ over 1.5 total bases (+135) & 1+ RBI (+180): The weather in Chicago is expected to be on the uglier side. But the matchup is excellent, and Happ is on a heater.
Happ and the Cubs get Atlanta Braves righty Bryce Elder, who sports a 5.85 ERA and below-average metrics across the board.
Elder has been hammered in consecutive seasons, and Atlanta’s bullpen has been demolished in the second half (5.28 ERA, 27th in MLB).
As for Happ, he’s responded in a big way after a dreadful July.
- Happ has a .900 OPS over the last 30 days (.284/.400/.500 line).
- He has a 1.014 OPS over the last 15 days (.320/.414/.600).
- Over the last week, the switch-hitter is batting a blistering .440/.481/.920.
Happ generally slots in the No. 4-6 spots in the Cubs’ lineup, providing him with great opportunities to drive in runs.
He has an RBI in six consecutive games and has recorded two-plus bases five times in his last seven contests.
Alvarez over 1.5 total bases (+100): Alvarez and the Houston Astros get New York Yankees right-hander Will Warren on Wednesday.
Warren has been a productive member of the Yanks’ rotation. But left-handed batters have hit him well, and he’s slowed down in the second half.
- Lefties are batting .270 with an .806 OPS vs. Warren compared to .222 and .630 for righties.
- Warren’s home run rate has soared in the second half. His sparkling K rate from the first half (26.7%) has been below league average post-all-star break (20.6%).
Alvarez has missed nearly the entire season, but the multi-time all-star is batting .333/.519/.500 in seven games since returning in late August.
MLB prop picks made at 1:55 p.m. ET on 09/03/2025.
Chris joined NorthStar Gaming from Covers.com where he was a publishing editor and wrote betting content. Before that, he was the sports editor at VICE Canada, worked for theScore and covered the Blue Jays for MLB.com. In addition to filling out the lineup card each day for the editorial team, Chris writes frequently himself, primarily on the NBA and MLB.