The AL Rookie of the Year in waiting, Nick Kurtz, headlines Saturday’s MLB prop bets.
Today’s MLB props narrative: Kurtz has destroyed right-handed pitching all season, and he faces a struggling one at the hitter-friendly Sutter Health Park. I’m betting on him to hit for power in this plus matchup.
Check out how I’m betting on them in the best MLB prop bets for Sept. 27, featuring Ketel Marte and Eury Perez.
MLB prop bets
Best bet: Kurtz over 1.5 total bases (-118)
Kurtz has two games remaining to put a bow on his historic rookie campaign.
So far, the 22-year-old has belted 35 home runs and ranks third in MLB in OPS (1.001). The only players ahead of him? Shohei Ohtani and Aaron Judge.
The vast majority of that damage has been inflicted against RHPs.
- .338/.340/.719 slash line
- 27 of 35 HRs
- 22 of 26 doubles
Kurtz was held hitless last night, but went 3-for-5 with a pair of home runs on Thursday.
He should have a good chance of rebounding against Kansas City Royals righty, Michael Wacha.
Wacha has a 7.88 ERA across his last five starts, ceding 34 hits in 24.0 IP. He’s only walked five batters in that span with a 16% K rate, which is right in line with his season-long profile (14th-percentile K rate, 83rd-percentile BB rate).
Kurtz should get something to hit at Sutter Health Park, the second-best offensive environment in MLB, per Baseball Savant’s park factors data.
Key stat: Kurtz leads MLB in wRC+ against RHPs (212).
Best MLB picks
Marte over 1.5 total bases (+120): The Arizona Diamondbacks’ current three-game losing streak ended their postseason chances, but Marte was solid in those outings.
- 5-for-13
- 2 doubles, 1 HR
- 3-0 vs. this prop
And dating back to Sept. 16, he’s posted a .350/.381/.625 slash line with eight extra-base hits and just one walk.
That’s what I like to see when targeting a bases prop. Tonight, he’ll go up against San Diego’s Michael King, which isn’t an easy assignment.
But King is making just his fourth start since returning from the injured list and will likely be on a pitch count after throwing no more than 70 pitches since May.
Marte is also 2-for-6 against King.
Perez under 14.5 outs (+115): There’s a world where the New York Mets are eliminated from the postseason tonight (with a loss, plus a Cincinnati Reds win).
I don’t see that happening, though.
Perez is on the bump for the opposing Miami Marlins, and he’s gotten shelled by New York.
The Mets are batting .471 off him in 23 combined plate appearances. He lasted just 0.2 innings agianst them on Aug. 29, giving up five earned runs with zero strikeouts.
The start after that, Perez coughed up seven ER in 4.0 IP against the Washington Nationals.
The righty has gone under this mark in four of his last seven outings.
MLB prop picks made at 10:25 a.m. ET on 09/27/2025.
Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.