A trio of late-night, California-based MLB prop bets are on my ticket for Tuesday.
Today’s MLB props narrative: There are six games starting after 9 p.m. ET tonight, and I’ve got predictions for three of them. Logan O’Hoppe and Brent Rooker both look like logical fade candidates, while Mookie Betts is worth backing amid his September surge.
Check out how I’m betting on them in the best MLB prop bets for Sept. 23.
MLB prop bets
Best bet: Rooker under 0.5 runs (-105)
I’ve found myself riding with Rooker a lot this season, especially inside the offence-friendly confines of Sacramento’s Sutter Health Park.
But his production has dipped recently, and I think he’s worth a fade on this prop at near-even money.
- Rooker has failed to score a run in 14 of 19 games since Aug. 31.
- In that 19-game span, he’s batting .215 with a .271 on-base percentage.
Rooker has moved between the second, third and fourth spots in the Athletics’ lineup most of the year, and he’s in the No. 2 spot right now.
That theoretically improves his chances to score, but not to an extent that I’m overly concerned.
The three A’s hitters behind Rooker — Nick Kurtz, Tyler Soderstrom and Shea Langeliers — have a collective .223/.281/.402 slash line over the past two weeks.
As a whole, the A’s have a 92 wRC+ in that span (18th in MLB).
Houston Astros starter Cristian Javier threw 6.0 innings of two-hit, shutout ball against the A’s last season. He has a .215 xBA through seven starts this year and can hopefully keep the A’s bats quiet again.
Key stat: Rooker is 0-for-6 with three Ks vs. Javier. Altogether, the A’s are 1-for-19 with seven strikeouts against the Houston righty.
Best MLB picks
Betts over 1.5 total bases (-112): It’s been a weird year for Betts, who entered September with a sub-.700 OPS.
For a guy who’d never had a sub-.800 OPS season before, that’s quite an anomaly.
But Betts is looking good these days, which is a huge lift for a Los Angeles Dodgers team that’s trying to lock down the NL West.
- So far in September, Betts has posted a .312/.360/.636 slash line.
- He’s 12-7 vs. this prop and is averaging 2.6 bases per game.
Betts is 9-for-20 with a double and two home runs vs. Arizona starter Brandon Pfaadt. That includes a 2-for-3 showing on the final day of August, which kick-started this current hot streak.
Pfaadt ranks in the sixth percentile in xERA (5.55) and in the second percentile in xBA (.301), per Baseball Savant.
O’Hoppe under 0.5 hits (+125): When I first looked at tonight’s Royals vs. Angels matchup, I wanted to bet on Cole Ragans’ strikeouts prop … but a -115 price for over 6.5 Ks while he’s on a pitch count didn’t entice me.
Fading O’Hoppe is somewhat of an endorsement for Ragans, though. O’Hoppe strikes out a ton, and now he’s up against a pitcher with an 11.2 K/9 over the past three seasons.
Oh, and O’Hoppe is 0-for-5 with four Ks in his previous matchups against Ragans.
With that in mind, this is a great price to fade L.A.’s catcher. But even against a lesser pitcher, I think I could make the case.
In his past 27 games, O’Hoppe is batting .141 with a 32.3% K rate. He has gone hitless in 15 of 25 starts in that span.
MLB prop picks made at 11:40 a.m. ET on 09/23/2025.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.