Prop bets on pitchers Freddy Peralta and Michael McGreevy make up my top plays for Monday’s light MLB slate.
Today’s MLB props narrative: I’m betting on recent trends to continue for the two starters. The Milwaukee Brewers ace has cleared the prop I’m playing at a 100% rate since August, while the St. Louis Cardinals rookie has topped his number at an 89% clip over the same time period.
Check out how I’m betting on them in the best MLB prop bets for Sept. 22.
MLB prop bets
Best bet: McGreevy over 16.5 outs (-109)
The Cardinals righty won’t wow with swing-and-miss stuff, but getting to 17 outs doesn’t require that.
McGreevy isn’t the flashiest arm, though his start at a top-tier pitching park against an ordinary offence makes him an attractive play.
Low strikeout rates and excellent control have allowed him to keep his pitch counts in check and clear this line often despite reaching 100 pitches once in 14 starts.
McGreevy was roughed up for six runs and a season-high nine hits by the Giants earlier this month, but I’m looking right past that tonight.
The Giants are 20th in wRC+ this month and have been a below-average offence at their home stadium, Oracle Park, a dreadful venue for home runs and offence in general.
Key stat: McGreevy has thrown six-plus innings in eight of his last nine starts.
Best MLB picks
Peralta over 5.5 Ks (+106): The San Diego Padres are among the hardest teams in the majors to retire on strikes.
And Peralta only fanned three batters when he faced them in June. But he’s on a sensational run and offers excellent value at plus money.
- Peralta has allowed one run or fewer in seven of eight starts since the beginning of August.
- Over that stretch, he leads all starters in strikeout rate, punching out 35.5% of the batters he’s faced.
- Peralta has cleared this number in all eight of those outings and is 15-2 vs. this line since facing the Padres earlier this year.
San Diego has the third-lowest K rate in the second half but Peralta has had challenging matchups over his dominant two-month stretch.
He has faced several teams with bottom-10 second-half K rates and cleared this line against them. That includes the Toronto Blue Jays, Texas Rangers, Atlanta Braves and Chicago Cubs.
MLB prop picks made at 11:40 a.m. ET on 09/22/2025.
Chris joined NorthStar Gaming from Covers.com where he was a publishing editor and wrote betting content. Before that, he was the sports editor at VICE Canada, worked for theScore and covered the Blue Jays for MLB.com. In addition to filling out the lineup card each day for the editorial team, Chris writes frequently himself, primarily on the NBA and MLB.