I’m targeting three starting pitchers for Monday’s MLB player prop recommendations.
Today’s MLB props narrative: My best bet is on Carlos Rodon, who has been dealing and giving the New York Yankees innings. I expect him to do it again on the road against the Minnesota Twins.
Check out my top MLB prop bets for Sept. 15, featuring predictions on Kyle Bradish and Ranger Suarez.
MLB prop bets
Best bet: Rodon over 17.5 outs (-143)
Rodon doesn’t have his elite strikeout numbers from years past, but he’s doing a lot of things well and has stayed on the mound.
The lefty is two innings shy of setting a career-high mark for innings pitched, something he should easily clear tonight.
Rodon enters Monday’s start with strong numbers across the board. And make no mistake, he still misses plenty of bats.
- He has his highest ground-ball rate since 2017 and a .187 opponents’ batting average. The only year he was better was 2021 (.186).
- Rodon has had multiple seasons with a 30% K rate, but he’s still well above average at 26%.
- He’s top 15 among qualified starters in ERA and ranks eighth in xERA (3.29).
- Rodon has allowed two runs or fewer in seven consecutive starts, putting up a 2.38 ERA over that stretch.
The 32-year-old has topped this line in five of his last six outings, logging 5.2 innings the one time he fell short.
Key stat: Rodon has thrown six-plus innings in 18 of his 30 starts.
Best MLB picks
Suarez over 4.5 Ks (-134): Suarez’s strikeout upside is impossible to ignore.
Make no mistake, he has one of his most challenging assignments of the season on the road against the Los Angeles Dodgers.
But there are harder teams to retire on strikes, and Suarez eats innings, too.
The Philadelphia Phillies southpaw has his best K rate since becoming a full-time starter in 2022 and has been lethal of late.
- Suarez has produced double-digit strikeout totals in three of his last five starts.
- He’s 11th in ERA and top 10 in FIP among starters who have thrown 140-plus innings. His consistency has allowed him to work into the sixth inning in 19 of his 23 starts.
The longer he’s out there, the more chances he has to pile up Ks.
Suarez has recorded five-plus Ks in 17 starts and notched at least six in 13.
Bradish over 5.5 Ks (-106): The Orioles right-hander is showing that he’ll be a huge piece in Baltimore’s rotation next year, assuming he’s healthy.
Bradish has been limited to three starts this season as he recovered from Tommy John surgery. The results have been super encouraging.
- Vs. PIT: 7.0 IP, 4 H, 1 R, 2 BB, 6 K
- @ SD: 4.0 IP, 4 H, 2 R, 2 BB, 5 K
- Vs. BOS: 6.0 IP, 4 H, 2 R, 10 K
That works out to an elite 32.3% K rate.
Before Bradish went down last year, he had a mark of 32.5% over eight starts. That came a year after posting a well-above-average 25.0 K% in the first 30-start year of his career.
Bradish can miss bats and should continue to tonight against the Chicago White Sox.
The White Sox have the eighth-highest K rate this month and have struck out at a top-10 clip vs. right-handers this season.
MLB prop picks made at 12:15 p.m. ET on 09/15/2025.
Chris joined NorthStar Gaming from Covers.com where he was a publishing editor and wrote betting content. Before that, he was the sports editor at VICE Canada, worked for theScore and covered the Blue Jays for MLB.com. In addition to filling out the lineup card each day for the editorial team, Chris writes frequently himself, primarily on the NBA and MLB.