Most of MLB’s Labour Day action is coming in the afternoon, but a pair of my prop bets target the evening slate.
Today’s MLB props narrative: Brandon Lowe is a good pick to mash when there’s a right-hander on the mound, and I’m buying in on his platoon advantage Monday night. Elsewhere, Kyle Bradish looks to build off an excellent season debut in which he racked up a bunch of strikeouts.
Check out my top MLB prop bets for Sept. 1, featuring a prediction on Carlos Correa.
MLB prop bets
Best bet: Bradish over 4.5 Ks (-103)
It’s been a nightmarish season for the Orioles, but a nice end-of-season run from Bradish would at least get the offseason started right.
Bradish made his season debut on Aug. 26 after a lengthy recovery from Tommy John surgery. It was his first start since June 14, 2024.
The right-hander tossed 6.0 strong innings, allowing two runs on four hits over 81 pitchers.
Oh, and the headliner? He had 10 strikeouts.
For a guy making his first MLB start in 14-plus months, a 10 K outing really stands out. He only needs half of that production on Monday night to cash this prop bet.
Bradish is facing the San Diego Padres, who are admittedly a tough team to strike out. They have the third-lowest strikeout rate in the majors (18.7%).
This just isn’t a hefty line for the average starting pitcher, and after Bradish’s explosive season debut, I think it should be well within reach.
Against the Red Sox last week, Bradish had a superb 43.2% whiff rate (16 whiffs on 37 swings).
Key stat: Bradish, who was the fourth-place AL Cy Young finisher in his most recent full season (2023), has a career 9.3 K/9 rate.
Best MLB picks
Lowe over 1.5 total bases (+112): There’s a notable platoon advantage that I’m happy to tap into with this pick, as the left-hitting Lowe faces Seattle right-hander Luis Castillo.
- Lowe vs. RHPs (2025): .290/.349/.557 slash line
- Castillo vs. LHBs (2025): .289/.363/.491 slash line
Lowe has hit 24 of his 28 homers off righties, while Castillo’s opponent SLG jumps 131 points when a left-hitting player digs into the box.
These guys matched up three weeks ago, and Lowe greeted Castillo with a solo home run in the top of the first inning. All told, Lowe is 3-for-8 with two extra-base hits vs. Castillo.
August was a brutal month for Castillo, as he allowed 18 runs on 33 hits (6.66 ERA) over five starts.
Correa over 0.5 RBI (+155): Correa has recorded an RBI in four of nine games as the Astros’ cleanup man, and he’ll be back in that spot this afternoon against the Los Angeles Angels.
After a white-hot start in his return to Houston at the start of August, Correa cooled a bit over the back half. Still, there’s a lot to like here.
- Correa is 13-for-25 (.520) with a triple and two doubles vs. Angels starter Yusei Kikuchi.
- Houston has a ton of experience — and success — against Kikuchi. The lineup as a whole is batting .288 with a .562 SLG in 146 at-bats. More traffic on the basepaths would mean more RBI opportunities for Correa.
- Kikuchi is coming off his worst start of the year (six earned runs over 4.0 innings). He has a 5.40 ERA over his past 10 starts.
MLB prop picks made at 11:22 a.m. ET on 09/01/2025.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.